van Dellen, S. 2012. Forecasting Overseas Visitors to the UK Using Continuous Time and Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average Models with Discrete Data. Tourism Economics. 18 (4), pp. 835-844. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0144
| Title | Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data |
|---|---|
| Type | Journal article |
| Authors | Nowman, K.B. |
| Van Dellen, S. | |
| Abstract | This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period. |
| Journal | Tourism Economics |
| Journal citation | 18 (4), pp. 835-844 |
| ISSN | 1354-8166 |
| Year | 2012 |
| Publisher | IP Publishing |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0144 |
| Publication dates | |
| Published | Aug 2012 |