Oil price changes and industrial output in the MENA region: nonlinearities and asymmetries

Awartani, B., Maghyereh, A. and Ayton, J. 2020. Oil price changes and industrial output in the MENA region: nonlinearities and asymmetries. Energy. 196, p. 117043 117043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117043

TitleOil price changes and industrial output in the MENA region: nonlinearities and asymmetries
TypeJournal article
AuthorsAwartani, B., Maghyereh, A. and Ayton, J.
Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the nature of asymmetry in the influence of oil price changes on output in six MENA countries. To get more observations for our analysis, we proxy GDP with industrial output and hence our inference is based on a relatively larger sample compared to previous studies. The results that we obtain are interesting and intuitive. First, we find that growth in MENA countries is linked to oil in the sense that it benefits from higher oil prices and it gets hurt by a fall in the oil market. Moreover, there are pronounced short- and long-term asymmetries in the influence of oil on output. In particular, the output is faster to respond to increases in the oil price than it responds to decreases. The long-term influence to a rise in oil is also higher, though it is realized over a longer period. These results are important and can be used to guide policies that are concerned with stabilizing the economies of the MENA region against oil price fluctuations.

Article number117043
JournalEnergy
Journal citation196, p. 117043
ISSN0360-5442
Year2020
PublisherElsevier
Accepted author manuscript
License
CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
File Access Level
Open (open metadata and files)
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117043
Publication dates
Published in print01 Apr 2020
Published online08 Feb 2020

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