The Changing Nature of Long-Haul Traffic on the North Atlantic: An Examination of Airline Network Strategies

The North Atlantic is a mature aviation market that has undergone tremendous change. Its evolution has been dynamic and is often at the forefront of industry developments.

The overall aim was to examine the airline operational changes that have occurred on the North Atlantic from 1997 (coinciding with the creation of the first global airline alliance) until 2017, and to determine their underlying factors. The study undertook a broad geographic basis and examined all direct flights on the North Atlantic from a seasonal approach to reflect airline operations. This provided sufficient scope to examine long-term trends and their drivers and their utility in forecasting future developments, something that has implications for airports and their ability to attract airline services.

Official Airline Guide (OAG) schedule data for both January and July were obtained, and focusing on frequency, quantitatively assessed network developments using the Herfindhal-Hirschman Index (HHI), the Beta Index, and the seasonality index. Gephi software was used to calculate eigencentrality values (EC) to determine relative importance which were standardized using conditional value centralities (CVC) to enable temporal comparisons. International Air Transport Association (IATA) PaxIS (passenger travel) data assessed market changes at the regional level (Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East as well as Canada). Regression analysis was conducted to identify key factors, the results of which formed the basis of a model applied to the UK and its regional airports. These results have implications for policymakers in their decision making for supporting and promoting airports to aid regional development.

The findings highlighted the growing importance of seasonality on airline operations, especially on flights between Europe and North America though not for flights from non-European regions. This underlined the necessity of examining both seasons rather than focusing on summer operations in research and is an opportunity for airline network expansion and fills a key gap in the research.

The North Atlantic has expanded and evolved from just European-North American travel into a larger and heterogeneous market. This is of importance to researchers and the need for inclusive research.

Although the largest and most important airports have remained relatively consistent, their dominance has receded over time. This is partially due to the growing importance of Middle Eastern airports for transfer traffic, especially from India, at the expense of their European counterparts. Airport concentration has fluctuated over time, with dispersion being of lesser importance during the winter than in the summer, coinciding with the increase in seasonal flights. This has contributed to the literature and addressed a gap in the literature.

Although alliances have influenced airline operations, it was found that joint-ventures were of greater influence as it enabled partners to co-ordinate schedules and operations thus contributing to the literature.

It was also found that regardless of alliance membership, airlines were pursuing different operational strategies although often within the framework of their alliance and joint-venture membership. Although airports like London Heathrow and New York JFK remain key destinations, overall urban importance was also an important factor in attracting services. This contributes to the literature on airline operations by identifying a key factor in attracting services.