Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Russian Trade: Firm-level Evidence from the NTR Act

This paper examines the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian trade following the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. The study focuses on the U.S. suspension of Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act (NTR Act), which imposed higher tariff rates on Russian goods. Using firm-to-firm level transaction data from the Bill of Lading dataset and a difference-in-differences strategy, the analysis reveals a 67.3 % decline in export value and a 62.3 % drop in export quantity for Russian exporters following the sanctions. Moreover, there was a 16.6 % decrease in the number of importers (consignees) from the U.S. and a 11.6 % reduction in the number of Russian exporters trading with the U.S. The results are robust after accounting for the impact of other sanction packages, the pandemic, and the war. Furthermore, small Russian exporters, especially those serving a limited number of U.S. importers and managing multiple products in the U.S. market, were most adversely affected.