New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Wu, D., Song, H. and Shen, S. 2017. New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management. 29 (1), pp. 507-529. doi:10.1108/IJCHM-05-2015-0249

TitleNew Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting
AuthorsWu, D., Song, H. and Shen, S.
Abstract

Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field.

Design/Methodology/approach
Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed.

Findings
This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area.

Research limitations/implications
The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting.

Practical implications
This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices.

Originality/value
The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

KeywordsKeywords: tourism and hotel demand; modeling and forecasting; methodological development
JournalInternational Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management
Journal citation29 (1), pp. 507-529
ISSN0959-6119
Year2017
PublisherEmerald
Accepted author manuscriptNew developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting PDF_Proof.pdf
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1108/IJCHM-05-2015-0249
Publication dates
Published20 Jan 2017

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