Ensemble Models in Forecasting Financial Markets

Karathanasopoulos, A., Mitra, S., Lo, C.C., Zaremba, A. and Osman, M. 2019. Ensemble Models in Forecasting Financial Markets. Journal of Computational Finance. 23 (3), pp. 101-119. https://doi.org/10.21314/JCF.2019.374

TitleEnsemble Models in Forecasting Financial Markets
TypeJournal article
AuthorsKarathanasopoulos, A., Mitra, S., Lo, C.C., Zaremba, A. and Osman, M.
Abstract

In this paper, we study an evolutionary framework for the optimization of various types of neural network structures and parameters. Three different evolutionary algorithms – the genetic algorithm (GA), differential evolution (DE) and the particle swarm optimizer (PSO) – are developed to optimize the structure and the parameters of three different types of neural network: multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks. The motivation of this project is to present novel methodologies for the task of forecasting and trading financial indexes. More specifically, the trading and statistical performance of all models is investigated in a forecast simulation of the SPY and the QQQ exchange-traded funds (ETFs) time series over the period January 2006 to December 2015, using the last three years as out-of-sample testing. As it turns out, the RBF-PSO, RBF-DE and RBF-GA ensemble methodologies do remarkably well and outperform all of the other models.

JournalJournal of Computational Finance
Journal citation23 (3), pp. 101-119
ISSN1460-1559
1755-2850
Year2019
PublisherIncisive Media
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.21314/JCF.2019.374
Web address (URL)https://www.risk.net/journal-of-computational-finance/6485736/ensemble-models-in-forecasting-financial-markets
Publication dates
Published18 Mar 2019

Related outputs

Catastrophe Bond Pricing In The Primary Market: The Issuer Effect And Pricing Factors
Chatoro, M, Mitra, S., Pantelous, A.A. and Shao, J. 2023. Catastrophe Bond Pricing In The Primary Market: The Issuer Effect And Pricing Factors. International Review of Financial Analysis. 85 102431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102431

A Real Options Approach To Measuring Freedom In Sen’s Capabilities Approach
Mitra, S. 2022. A Real Options Approach To Measuring Freedom In Sen’s Capabilities Approach. International Journal of Sustainable Economy. 14 (1), pp. 98-110. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSE.2022.119716

Optimal Feedback Control of Stock Prices Under Credit Risk Dynamics
Mitra, S., Jinghai Shao and Karathanasopoulos, Andreas 2022. Optimal Feedback Control of Stock Prices Under Credit Risk Dynamics. Annals of Operations Research. 313, pp. 1285-1318. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-021-04002-6

Keynesian Resurgence: Financial Stimulus And Contingent Claims Modelling
Clark, E., Mitra, S. and Jokung, O. 2020. Keynesian Resurgence: Financial Stimulus And Contingent Claims Modelling. International Journal of Mathematics in Operational Research. 17 (2), pp. 199-232. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMOR.2020.109701

Downside risk measurement in regime switching stochastic volatility
Mitra, S. 2020. Downside risk measurement in regime switching stochastic volatility. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics. 378 112845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2020.112845

Health Care Investment: The Case of Multiple Sources of Risk
Jokung, O. and Mitra, S. 2020. Health Care Investment: The Case of Multiple Sources of Risk. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets. 27, pp. 231-255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-019-09291-3

An analysis of dollar cost averaging and market timing investment strategies
Lars Kirkby, J., Mitra, S. and Nguyen, D. 2020. An analysis of dollar cost averaging and market timing investment strategies. European Journal of Operational Research. 286 (3), pp. 1168-1186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.04.055

FinTech revolution: the impact of management information systems upon relative firm value and risk
Mitra, S. and Karathanasopoulos, A. 2020. FinTech revolution: the impact of management information systems upon relative firm value and risk. Journal of Banking and Financial Technology. 4, p. 175–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42786-020-00023-0

Big Data And PAC Learning In The Presence Of Noise: Implications For Financial Risk Management
Chinthalapati, V.L.R., Mitra, S. and Serguieva, A. 2019. Big Data And PAC Learning In The Presence Of Noise: Implications For Financial Risk Management. International Journal of Artificial Intelligence. 17 (1), pp. 34-56.

Risk lovers, mixed risk loving and the preference to combine good with good
Jokung, O. and Mitra, S. 2019. Risk lovers, mixed risk loving and the preference to combine good with good. International Journal of Management and Applied Science. 11 (4), pp. 295-313.

Post Global Financial Crisis Modelling: Credit Risk For Firms That Are Too Big To Fail
Clark, E., Mitra, S. and Jokung, O. 2019. Post Global Financial Crisis Modelling: Credit Risk For Firms That Are Too Big To Fail. International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives. 7 (1), pp. 15-39. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFMD.2019.101235

Political Risk Modelling and Measurement From Stochastic Volatility Models
Mitra, S. 2019. Political Risk Modelling and Measurement From Stochastic Volatility Models. International Journal of Sustainable Economy. 11 (2), pp. 184-218. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSE.2019.099064

Regression Based Scenario Generation: Applications For Performance Management
Mitra, S., Lim, S. and Karathanasopoulos, A. 2019. Regression Based Scenario Generation: Applications For Performance Management. Operations Research Perspectives. 6 100095. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orp.2018.100095

Firm Value And The Impact of Operational Management
Mitra, S. and Karathanasopoulos, A. 2019. Firm Value And The Impact of Operational Management. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets. 26, pp. 61-85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-018-9258-1

Stock-ADR Arbitrage: Microstructure Risk
Mitra, S. 2019. Stock-ADR Arbitrage: Microstructure Risk. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money. 63 101132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2019.08.004

Efficient Option Risk Measurement With Reduced Model Risk
Mitra, S. 2017. Efficient Option Risk Measurement With Reduced Model Risk. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 72, pp. 163-174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.09.006

Stock Market Prediction Using Evolutionary Support Vector Machines: An Application To The ASE20 Index
Karathanasopoulos, A., Theofilatos, K.A., Sermpinis, D., Dunis, C., Mitra, S. and Stasinakis, C. 2016. Stock Market Prediction Using Evolutionary Support Vector Machines: An Application To The ASE20 Index. European Journal of Finance. 22 (12), pp. 1145-1163. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2015.1040167

Operational Risk: Emerging Markets, Sectors and Measurement
Mitra, S., Karathanasopoulos, A., Sermpinis, G., Dunis, C. and Hood, J. 2015. Operational Risk: Emerging Markets, Sectors and Measurement . European Journal of Operational Research. 241 (1), pp. 122-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.08.021

Permalink - https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/w3qwy/ensemble-models-in-forecasting-financial-markets


Share this

Usage statistics

32 total views
1 total downloads
These values cover views and downloads from WestminsterResearch and are for the period from September 2nd 2018, when this repository was created.