Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity

Conte, A. and Hey, J.D. 2013. Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 46 (2), pp. 113-132.

TitleAssessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity
AuthorsConte, A. and Hey, J.D.
Abstract

The recent spate of theoretical models of behaviour under ambiguity can be partitioned into two sets: those involving multiple priors and those not involving multiple priors. This paper provides an experimental investigation into the first set. Using an appropriate experimental interface we examine the fitted and predictive power of the various theories. We first estimate subject-by-subject, and then estimate and predict using a mixture model over the contending theories. The individual estimates suggest that 24% of our 149 subjects have behaviour consistent with Expected Utility, 56% with the Smooth Model, 11% with Rank Dependent Expected Utility and 9% with the Alpha Model; these figures are close to the mixing proportions obtained from the mixture estimates where the respective posterior probabilities of each of them being of the various types are 25%, 50%, 20% and 5%; and using the predictions 22%, 53%, 22% and 3%. The Smooth model appears the best.

JournalJournal of Risk and Uncertainty
Journal citation46 (2), pp. 113-132
ISSN0895-5646
YearMar 2013
PublisherSpringer
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1007/s11166-013-9164-x
Publication dates
PublishedMar 2013

Related outputs

Risk Preferences and the Role of Emotions
Conte, A., Levati, M.V. and Nardi, C. 2018. Risk Preferences and the Role of Emotions. Economica. 85 (338), pp. 305-328.

The impact of time limitation: insights from a queueing experiment
Conte, A., Scarsini, M. and Sürücü, O. 2016. The impact of time limitation: insights from a queueing experiment. Judgment and Decision Making. 11 (3), pp. 260-274.

Behavioural Patterns in Social Networks
Conte, A., Di Cagno, D.T. and Sciubba, E. 2015. Behavioural Patterns in Social Networks. Economic Inquiry. 53 (2), pp. 1331-1349.

The econometric modelling of social preferences
Conte, A. and Moffatt, P.G. 2014. The econometric modelling of social preferences. Theory and decision. 76 (1), pp. 119-145.

The impact of truancy on educational attainment during compulsory schooling: a bivariate ordered probit estimator with mixed effects
Buscha, F. and Conte, A. 2014. The impact of truancy on educational attainment during compulsory schooling: a bivariate ordered probit estimator with mixed effects. The Manchester School. 82 (1), pp. 103-127.

Are you experienced? SME use of and attitudes towards workplace mediation
Latreille, P., Buscha, F. and Conte, A. 2012. Are you experienced? SME use of and attitudes towards workplace mediation. International Journal of Human Resource Management. 23 (3), pp. 590-606.

A test of the rational expectations hypothesis using data from a natural experiment
Conte, A., Moffatt, P.G., Botti, F., Di Cagno, D.T. and D’Ippoliti, C. 2012. A test of the rational expectations hypothesis using data from a natural experiment. Applied Economics. 44 (35), pp. 4661-4678.

Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity
Conte, A. and Hey, J.D. 2012. Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity. York University of York.

Mixture models of choice under risk
Conte, A., Hey, J.D. and Moffatt, P.G. 2011. Mixture models of choice under risk. Journal of Econometrics. 162 (1), pp. 79-88.

SME attitudes towards mediation: some survey evidence
Latreille, P., Buscha, F. and Conte, A. 2010. SME attitudes towards mediation: some survey evidence. Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service (ACAS).

Lab and framed lab versus natural experiments: evidence from a risky choice experiment
Botti, F., Conte, A., Di Cagno, D.T. and D’Ippoliti, C. 2009. Lab and framed lab versus natural experiments: evidence from a risky choice experiment. Research in economics. 63 (4), pp. 282-295.

Risk attitude in real decision problems
Botti, F., Conte, A., Di Cagno, D.T. and D’Ippoliti, C. 2008. Risk attitude in real decision problems. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy. 8 (1).

Permalink - https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/8yx96/assessing-multiple-prior-models-of-behaviour-under-ambiguity


Share this
Tweet
Email