Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union
Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. 2018. Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union. Economic Modelling. 73, pp. 317-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.010
| Title | Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union |
|---|---|
| Type | Journal article |
| Authors | Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. |
| Abstract | As the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth countries. We also consider the dynamics of welfare changes over a period of two decades. Our estimates suggest that the impact of Brexit is negative in all policy scenarios, with lower welfare losses under a soft Brexit scenario. The losses are exacerbated if TTIP comes into force, demonstrating the benefits of being a member of a large trade bloc. However, they occur gradually and can be partially compensated by signing new free trade agreements. To further minimise losses, the UK should avoid a hard Brexit. |
| Keywords | Brexit |
| Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership | |
| Gravity | |
| UK | |
| EU | |
| Journal | Economic Modelling |
| Journal citation | 73, pp. 317-328 |
| ISSN | 0264-9993 |
| Year | 2018 |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Accepted author manuscript | |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.010 |
| Publication dates | |
| Published online | 10 May 2018 |
| Published | 10 May 2018 |
| Published in print | Jun 2018 |
| License | CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 |