Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union

Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. 2018. Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union. Economic Modelling. 73, pp. 317-328. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.010

TitlePost-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union
TypeJournal article
AuthorsJackson, K. and Shepotylo, O.
Abstract

As the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth countries. We also consider the dynamics of welfare changes over a period of two decades. Our estimates suggest that the impact of Brexit is negative in all policy scenarios, with lower welfare losses under a soft Brexit scenario. The losses are exacerbated if TTIP comes into force, demonstrating the benefits of being a member of a large trade bloc. However, they occur gradually and can be partially compensated by signing new free trade agreements. To further minimise losses, the UK should avoid a hard Brexit.

KeywordsBrexit
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
Gravity
UK
EU
JournalEconomic Modelling
Journal citation73, pp. 317-328
ISSN0264-9993
Year2018
PublisherElsevier
Accepted author manuscript
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.010
Publication dates
Published online10 May 2018
Published10 May 2018
Published in printJun 2018
LicenseCC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Related outputs

Trade (dis)integration: The sudden death of NAFTA
Bakas, D., Jackson, K. and Magkonis, G. 2019. Trade (dis)integration: The sudden death of NAFTA. Open Economies Review. doi:10.1007/s11079-019-09567-1

An Inquiry into Exchanges Rate Misalignments as a Cause of the Major Global Trade Imbalances
Nasir, M.A. and Jackson, K. 2019. An Inquiry into Exchanges Rate Misalignments as a Cause of the Major Global Trade Imbalances. Journal of Economic Studies . 46 (4), pp. 902-924. doi:10.1108/JES-03-2018-0102

Identifying networks in social media: The case of #Grexit
Jackson, K. and Magkonis, G. 2019. Identifying networks in social media: The case of #Grexit. Networks and Spatial Economics. 19 (1), p. 319–330. doi:10.1007/s11067-018-9399-9

Regional Trade institutions in West Africa: Historical Reflections
Bah, E., Jackson, K. and Potts, D.J. 2018. Regional Trade institutions in West Africa: Historical Reflections. Journal of International Development . 30 (8), pp. 1255-1272. doi:10.1002/jid.3292

The Segmentation of Europe: Convergence or Divergence between Core and Periphery?
Baimbridge, M., Litsios, I., Jackson, K. and Lee, U. R. 2017. The Segmentation of Europe: Convergence or Divergence between Core and Periphery? Palgrave Macmillan.

‘Belt and Road’: The ‘China Dream’?
Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. 2017. ‘Belt and Road’: The ‘China Dream’? The Belt and Road Initiative: EU-China Logistics and Supply Chain. Bruges 23 Nov 2017

‘Belt and Road’: The ‘China Dream’?
Jackson, K. 2017. ‘Belt and Road’: The ‘China Dream’? Third International Forum on the "New Silk Road" and Sino-European Cooperation. Duisburg 08 - 09 Nov 2017

‘Belt and Road’: The ‘China Dream’?
Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. 2017. ‘Belt and Road’: The ‘China Dream’? Trade and integration in a Time of Anti-Globalization. Malmo 25 - 27 Oct 2017

Belt and Road: The ‘China Dream’?
Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. 2017. Belt and Road: The ‘China Dream’? European Trade Study Group. Florence 14 - 16 Sep 2017

Evaluating methodological issues in the tourism literature: UK outgoing tourism and trade links
Jackson, K. and Zang, W. 2015. Evaluating methodological issues in the tourism literature: UK outgoing tourism and trade links. Economic Issues. 20 (1), pp. 1-42.

Permalink - https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/q4ywv/post-brexit-trade-survival-looking-beyond-the-european-union


Share this
Tweet
Email

Usage statistics

36 total views
26 total downloads
1 views this month
2 downloads this month
These values are for the period from September 2nd 2018, when this repository was created

Export as