An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. 2020. An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios. The World Economy. Advanced online publication. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13049

TitleAn examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios
TypeJournal article
AuthorsJackson, K. and Shepotylo, O.
Abstract

This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighboring high income and middle income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.

KeywordsGravity model
trade policy
Brexit
EU
JournalThe World Economy
ISSN1467-9701
Year2020
PublisherWiley
Accepted author manuscript
File Access Level
Open (open metadata and files)
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13049
Publication dates
Published online09 Oct 2020

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Accepted author manuscript

Under embargo until 09 Oct 2022
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