Incorporating spatial context into remaining-time predictive process monitoring

Ogunbiyi, Niyi, Basukoski, Artie and Chaussalet, Thierry 2021. Incorporating spatial context into remaining-time predictive process monitoring. 36th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing. Virtual Event Republic of Korea 22 - 26 Mar 2021 ACM. https://doi.org/10.1145/3412841.3441933

TitleIncorporating spatial context into remaining-time predictive process monitoring
AuthorsOgunbiyi, Niyi, Basukoski, Artie and Chaussalet, Thierry
TypeConference paper
Abstract

Predictive business process monitoring aims to accurately predict a variable of interest (e.g. remaining time) or the future state of the process instance (e.g. outcome or next step). It is an important topic both from a research and practitioner perspective. For example, existing research suggests that even when problems occur with service provision, providing accurate estimates around process completion time is positively correlated with increasing customer satisfaction. The quest for models with higher predictive power has led to the development of a variety of novel techniques. However, though the location of events is a crucial explanatory variable in many business processes, as yet there have been no studies which have incorporated spatial context into the predictive process monitoring framework. This paper seeks to address this problem by introducing the concept of a spatial event log which records location details at a trace or event level.

The predictive utility of spatial contextual features is evaluated vis-à-vis other contextual features. An approach is proposed to predict the remaining time of an in-flight process instance by calculating the buffer distances between the location of events in a spatial event log to capture spatial proximity and connectedness. These distances are subsequently utilised to construct a regression model which is then used to predict the remaining time for events in the test dataset. The proposed approach is benchmarked against existing approaches using five real-life event logs and demonstrates that spatial features improve the predictive power of business process monitoring models.

Year2021
Conference36th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing
PublisherACM
Accepted author manuscript
Publication dates
Published online22 Apr 2021
Published in print22 Mar 2021
JournalProceedings of the 36th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing
Journal citationpp. 535-542
Book titleSAC '21: Proceedings of the 36th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing
ISBN9781450381048
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1145/3412841.3441933

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Tadjer, M., Chaussalet, T.J., Fouladinejad, F., Chahed, S., Saiyed, S., Redzanovic, S. and Fouladinajed, F. 2011. Towards a full implementation of collaborative care plan. OR Informing National Health Policy. in: Operational Research Information National Health Policy: proceedings of the 37th ORAHS conference School of Mathematics, Cardiff University.

Data warehousing based architecture for the reporting of the NHS primary care prescribing
Redzanovic, S., Chountas, P., Chaussalet, T.J., Fouladinejad, F., Tadjer, M. and Fouladinajed, F. 2011. Data warehousing based architecture for the reporting of the NHS primary care prescribing. in: Olive, M. and Solomonides, T. (ed.) Proceedings of CMBS: the 24th International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems, June 27th – 30th, 2011, Bristol, United Kingdom IEEE .

Exploring the effect of temperature variations on unplanned asthma admissions
Islam, M.S., Chaussalet, T.J., Balta-Ozkan, N. and Demir, E. 2011. Exploring the effect of temperature variations on unplanned asthma admissions. in: Operational Research Information National Health Policy: proceedings of the 37th ORAHS conference School of Mathematics, Cardiff University. pp. 74-88

The impact of temperature disparity on emergency readmissions and patient flows
Islam, M.S., Chaussalet, T.J., Balta-Ozkan, N., Chahed, S., Demir, E. and Sarran, C. 2011. The impact of temperature disparity on emergency readmissions and patient flows. in: Olive, M. and Solomonides, T. (ed.) Proceedings of CMBS: the 24th International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems, June 27th – 30th, 2011, Bristol, United Kingdom IEEE .

Modelling high dependency care in the local neonatal unit
Dalton, S. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2011. Modelling high dependency care in the local neonatal unit. in: Operational Research Information National Health Policy: proceedings of the 37th ORAHS conference Cardiff School of Mathematics, Cardiff University.

Nonproportional random effects modelling of a neonatal unit operational patient pathways
Adeyemi, S., Chaussalet, T.J. and Demir, E. 2011. Nonproportional random effects modelling of a neonatal unit operational patient pathways. Statistical Methods and Applications. 20 (4), pp. 507-518. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10260-011-0174-z

Measuring and modelling occupancy time in NHS continuing healthcare
Chahed, S., Demir, E., Chaussalet, T.J., Millard, P.H. and Toffa, S.E. 2011. Measuring and modelling occupancy time in NHS continuing healthcare. BMC Health Services Research. 11 (155), p. 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-11-155

Editorial: IMA Health 2010
Vasilakis, C., Chaussalet, T.J. and Baker, R.D. 2011. Editorial: IMA Health 2010. Health Care Management Science. 14 (3), pp. 213-214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-011-9174-7

A loss network model with overflow for capacity planning of a neonatal unit
Asaduzzaman, M., Chaussalet, T.J. and Robertson, N.J. 2010. A loss network model with overflow for capacity planning of a neonatal unit. Annals of Operations Research. 178 (1), pp. 67-76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-009-0548-x

Random effects models for operational patient pathways
Adeyemi, S., Chaussalet, T.J., Xie, H. and Assaduzzman, M. 2010. Random effects models for operational patient pathways. Journal of Applied Statistics. 37 (4), pp. 691-701. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664760902873951

Analysis of variability in neonatal care units: a retrospective analysis
Adeyemi, S., Demir, E., Chahed, S. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2010. Analysis of variability in neonatal care units: a retrospective analysis. in: IEEE Workshop on Health Care Management (WHCM), Venice, 18-20 February 2010 IEEE . pp. 1-6

Towards effective capacity planning in a perinatal network centre
Asaduzzaman, M., Chaussalet, T.J., Adeyemi, S., Chahed, S., Hawdon, J., Wood, D. and Robertson, N.J. 2010. Towards effective capacity planning in a perinatal network centre. Archives of Disease in Childhood. Fetal and Neonatal Edition. 95 (4), pp. F283-F287. https://doi.org/10.1136/adc.2009.161661

A Grid implementation for profiling hospitals based on patient readmissions
Demir, E., Chaussalet, T.J., Weingarten, N. and Kiss, T. 2009. A Grid implementation for profiling hospitals based on patient readmissions. in: McClean, S.I., Millard, P.H., El-Darzi, E. and Nugent, C. (ed.) Intelligent patient management Springer.

A systematic approach in defining readmission
Demir, E. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2009. A systematic approach in defining readmission. in: Proceedings of the 22nd IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems (CBMS 2009) IEEE . pp. 1-7

The analyses of individual patient pathways: investigating regional variation in COPD readmissions
Adeyemi, S., Chaussalet, T.J., Xie, H. and Asaduzzaman, M. 2009. The analyses of individual patient pathways: investigating regional variation in COPD readmissions. in: Sakalauskas, L., Skiadas, C. and Zavadskas, E.K. (ed.) Proceedings of the 13th International Conference "Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis", ASMDA 2009, 30 June – 3 July 2009, Vilnius, Lithuania ASMDA. pp. 316-319

Models for extracting information on patient pathways
Adeyemi, S. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2009. Models for extracting information on patient pathways. in: McClean, S.I., Millard, P.H., El-Darzi, E. and Nugent, C. (ed.) Intelligent patient management Springer.

Editorial: Applying mathematics to problems in health care: a call to pencils
Utley, M., Chaussalet, T.J. and Baker, R.D. 2009. Editorial: Applying mathematics to problems in health care: a call to pencils. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 20 (4), pp. 323-323. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpn036

Modelling risk of readmission with phase-type distribution and transition models
Demir, E., Chaussalet, T.J., Xie, H. and Millard, P.H. 2009. Modelling risk of readmission with phase-type distribution and transition models. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 20 (4), pp. 357-367. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpn032

Emergency readmission criterion: a technique for determining emergency readmission time window
Demir, E., Chaussalet, T.J., Xie, H. and Millard, P.H. 2008. Emergency readmission criterion: a technique for determining emergency readmission time window. IEEE Transactions on Information Technology in Biomedicine. 12 (5), pp. 644-649. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITB.2007.911311

Advanced Grid programming with components: a biometric identification case study
Weigold, T., Buhler, P., Thiyagalingam, J., Basukoski, A. and Getov, Vladimir 2008. Advanced Grid programming with components: a biometric identification case study. in: Proceedings of the 32nd Annual IEEE International Computer Software and Applications Conference, 28 July - 1 August 2008, Turku, Finland: COMPSAC 2008 Los Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 401-408

Natural deduction system for linear time temporal logic
Bolotov, A., Basukoski, A., Gregoryev, O. and Shangin, V. 2008. Natural deduction system for linear time temporal logic. in: Logical Investigations Moscow Nauka.

Design and implementation of a hybrid P2P-based Grid resource discovery system
Basukoski, A., Getov, Vladimir, Thiyagalingam, J. and Isaiadis, S. 2008. Design and implementation of a hybrid P2P-based Grid resource discovery system. in: Danelutto, M., Fragopoulou, P. and Getov, Vladimir (ed.) Making grids work: Proceedings of the CoreGRID Workshop on Programming Models Grid and P2P System Architecture Grid Systems, Tools and Environments 12-13 June 2007, Heraklion, Crete, Greece Springer.

Methodology for component-based development of grid applications
Basukoski, A., Buhler, P., Getov, Vladimir, Isaiadis, S. and Weigold, T. 2008. Methodology for component-based development of grid applications. in: Compframe/Hpc-Geco Workshop: Proceedings of the 2008 compFrame/HPC-GECO workshop on Component based high performance New York, NY, USA ACM.

Modelling and performance measure of a perinatal network centre in the United Kingdom
Asaduzzaman, M. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2008. Modelling and performance measure of a perinatal network centre in the United Kingdom. in: Proceedings of the 21st IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems, IEEE CBMS 2008, Jyväskylä, 17-19 June 2008 Los Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 506-511

A random effects sensitivity analysis for patient pathways model
Adeyemi, S. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2008. A random effects sensitivity analysis for patient pathways model. in: Proceedings of the 21st IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems, IEEE CBMS 2008, Jyväskylä, 17-19 June 2008 Los Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 536-538

Balancing the NHS balanced scorecard!
Patel, B., Chaussalet, T.J. and Millard, P.H. 2008. Balancing the NHS balanced scorecard! European Journal of Operational Research. 185 (3), pp. 905-914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.02.056

Editorial: IMA Health 2007
Baker, R.D., Chaussalet, T.J. and Utley, M. 2008. Editorial: IMA Health 2007. Health Care Management Science. 11 (2), pp. 87-88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-008-9065-8

An objective method for bed capacity planning in a hospital department - a comparison with target ratio methods.
Nguyen, J.M., Six, P., Chaussalet, T.J., Antonioli, D., Lombrail, P. and Le Beux, P. 2007. An objective method for bed capacity planning in a hospital department - a comparison with target ratio methods. Methods of Information in Medicine. 46 (4), pp. 399-405. https://doi.org/10.1160/me0385

A semi-open queueing network approach to the analysis of patient flow in healthcare systems
Xie, H., Chaussalet, T.J. and Rees, M. 2007. A semi-open queueing network approach to the analysis of patient flow in healthcare systems. in: Proceedings of the 20th IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems. IEEE CBMS 2007, Maribor, Slovenia, 20-22 June 2007 Los Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 719-724

Determining readmission time window using mixture of generalised Erlang distribution
Demir, E., Chaussalet, T.J. and Xie, H. 2007. Determining readmission time window using mixture of generalised Erlang distribution. in: Proceedings of the 20th IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems. IEEE CBMS 2007, Maribor, Slovenia, 20-22 June 2007 Los Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 21-26

Developing an application of an accident and emergency patient simulation modelling using an interactive framework
Codrington-Virtue, A., Chaussalet, T.J., Whittlestone, P. and Kelly, J. 2007. Developing an application of an accident and emergency patient simulation modelling using an interactive framework. in: Brailsford, S. and Harper, P.R. (ed.) Operational research for health policy: making better decisions: proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the European Working Group on Operational Research Applied to Health Services Oxford ; New York Peter Lang. pp. 61-76

Patients flow: a mixed-effects modelling approach to predicting discharge probabilities
Adeyemi, S., Chaussalet, T.J., Xie, H. and Millard, P.H. 2007. Patients flow: a mixed-effects modelling approach to predicting discharge probabilities. in: Proceedings of the 20th IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems. IEEE CBMS 2007, Maribor, Slovenia, 20-22 June 2007 Los Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 725-730

A simple graphical decision aid for the placement of elderly people in long-term care
Xie, H., Chaussalet, T.J., Thompson, W.A. and Millard, P.H. 2007. A simple graphical decision aid for the placement of elderly people in long-term care. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 58 (4), pp. 446-453. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602179

The ICMCC second conference on "Medical and Care Compunetics"
Chaussalet, T.J. and Bos, L. 2006. The ICMCC second conference on "Medical and Care Compunetics". International Journal of Medical Informatics. 75 (9), pp. vii-viii. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1386-5056(06)00188-2

A model-based approach to the analysis of patterns of length of stay in institutional long-term care
Xie, H., Chaussalet, T.J. and Millard, P.H. 2006. A model-based approach to the analysis of patterns of length of stay in institutional long-term care. IEEE Transactions on Information Technology in Biomedicine. 10 (3), pp. 512-518. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITB.2005.863820

A clausal resolution method for extended computation tree logic ECTL
Bolotov, A. and Basukoski, A. 2006. A clausal resolution method for extended computation tree logic ECTL. Journal of Applied Logic. 4 (2), pp. 141-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jal.2005.06.003

Specification and verification of reconfiguration protocols in grid component systems
Basso, A., Bolotov, A., Basukoski, A., Getov, Vladimir, Henrio, L. and Urbanski, M. 2006. Specification and verification of reconfiguration protocols in grid component systems. CoreGRID. https://doi.org/CoreGRIDTechnicalReportNumberTR-0042

A clausal resolution method for branching-time logic ECTL+
Bolotov, A. and Basukoski, A. 2006. A clausal resolution method for branching-time logic ECTL+. Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence. 46 (3), pp. 235-263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10472-006-9018-1

Specification and Verification of Reconfiguration Protocols in Grid Component Systems
Bolotov, A., Getov, Vladimir, Basso, A. and Basukoski, A. 2006. Specification and Verification of Reconfiguration Protocols in Grid Component Systems. Proceedings of the Workshop on Automated Reasoning: Bridging the Gap between Theory and Practice. London 30 - 31 Mar 2010 University of Bristol Technical Report.

A method for determining an emergency readmission time window for better patient management
Demir, E., Chaussalet, T.J., Xie, H. and Millard, P.H. 2006. A method for determining an emergency readmission time window for better patient management. in: Lee, D.J., Nutter, B., Antani, S., Mitra, S. and Archibald, J. (ed.) Nineteenth IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems: 22-23 June June 2006, Salt Lake City, Utah. Proceedings Las Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 789-793

A system for patient management based discrete-event simulation and hierarchical clustering
Codrington-Virtue, A., Chaussalet, T.J., Millard, P.H., Whittlestone, P. and Kelly, J. 2006. A system for patient management based discrete-event simulation and hierarchical clustering. in: Lee, D.J., Nutter, B., Antani, S., Mitra, S. and Archibald, J. (ed.) Nineteenth IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems: 22-23 June 2006, Salt Lake City, Utah. Proceedings Las Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 800-804

A closed queueing network approach to the analysis of patient flow in health care systems
Chaussalet, T.J., Xie, H. and Millard, P.H. 2006. A closed queueing network approach to the analysis of patient flow in health care systems. Methods of Information in Medicine. 45 (5), pp. 492-497.

Natural deduction calculus for linear-time temporal logic
Bolotov, A., Basukoski, A., Grigoriev, O. and Shangin, V. 2006. Natural deduction calculus for linear-time temporal logic. in: Fisher, M., van der Hoek, W., Konev, B. and Lisitsa, A. (ed.) Logics in artificial intelligence: 10th European conference, JELIA 2006: Liverpool, UK September 13-15 2006: proceedings Berlin, Germany Springer.

Specification and verification of reconfiguration protocols in grid component systems
Basso, A., Bolotov, A., Basukoski, A., Getov, Vladimir, Henrio, L. and Urbanski, M. 2006. Specification and verification of reconfiguration protocols in grid component systems. in: Proceedings of the 3rd IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Systems (IS-2006) Los Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 450-455

A software tool to aid long-term care budget planning at local authority level
Xie, H., Chaussalet, T.J., Toffa, S.E. and Crowther, P. 2006. A software tool to aid long-term care budget planning at local authority level. International Journal of Medical Informatics. 75 (9), pp. 664-670. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2006.04.009

Six methodological steps to build medical data warehouses for research
Szirbik, N., Pelletier, C. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2006. Six methodological steps to build medical data warehouses for research. International Journal of Medical Informatics. 75 (9), pp. 683-691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2006.04.003

On the use of multi-state multi-census techniques for modelling the survival of elderly people in institutional long-term care
Pelletier, C., Chaussalet, T.J. and Xie, H. 2005. On the use of multi-state multi-census techniques for modelling the survival of elderly people in institutional long-term care. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 16 (3), pp. 255-264. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpi021

A software tool to aid budget planning for long-term care at local authority level
Xie, H., Chaussalet, T.J., Toffa, S.E. and Crowther, P. 2005. A software tool to aid budget planning for long-term care at local authority level. in: Bos, L., Laxminarayan, S. and Marsh, A.J. (ed.) Medical and care compunetics 2 Oxford, UK IOS Press.

A tool for studying the effects of residents' attributes on patterns of length of stay in long-term care
Xie, H., Chaussalet, T.J. and Millard, P.H. 2005. A tool for studying the effects of residents' attributes on patterns of length of stay in long-term care. in: Tsymbal, A. and Cunningham, P. (ed.) Proceedings of the 18th IEEE Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems: 23-25 June 2005, Dublin, Ireland USA IEEE . pp. 473-478

Crossing heterogeneous information sources for better analysis in long term care for elderly people
Pelletier, C., Szirbik, N. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2005. Crossing heterogeneous information sources for better analysis in long term care for elderly people. in: Bos, L., Laxminarayan, S. and Marsh, A.J. (ed.) Medical and care compunetics 2 Oxford, UK IOS Press.

An interactive framework for developing simulation models of hospital accident and emergency services
Codrington-Virtue, A., Whittlestone, P., Kelly, J. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2005. An interactive framework for developing simulation models of hospital accident and emergency services. in: Bos, L., Laxminarayan, S. and Marsh, A.J. (ed.) Medical and care compunetics 2 Oxford, UK IOS Press.

Search strategies for resolution in CTL-type logics: extension and complexity
Basukoski, A. and Bolotov, A. 2005. Search strategies for resolution in CTL-type logics: extension and complexity. in: 12th International Symposium on Temporal Representation and Reasoning, 2005: TIME 2005 Los Alamitos, USA IEEE . pp. 195-197

A continuous time Markov model for the length of stay of elderly people in institutional long-term care
Xie, H., Chaussalet, T.J. and Millard, P.H. 2005. A continuous time Markov model for the length of stay of elderly people in institutional long-term care. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A. 168 (1), pp. 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00335.x

A framework for predicting gross institutional long-term care cost arising from known commitments at local authority level
Pelletier, C., Chaussalet, T.J. and Xie, H. 2005. A framework for predicting gross institutional long-term care cost arising from known commitments at local authority level. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 56 (2), pp. 144-152. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601892

Integrating data on the long-term care for elderly people from heterogeneous sources in support of research
Chaussalet, T.J. and Thompson, W.A. 2004. Integrating data on the long-term care for elderly people from heterogeneous sources in support of research. in: Proceedings of the 10th Mediterranean Conference of the International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering (MEDICON 2004), Ischia, Italy, 31 Jul - 5 Aug 2004 Ghedimedia.

A clausal resolution method for branching-time logic ECTL+
Bolotov, A. and Basukoski, A. 2004. A clausal resolution method for branching-time logic ECTL+. in: Combi, C. (ed.) 11th International Symposium on Temporal Representation and Reasoning: (TIME 2004), Tatihou, Normandie, France, 1-3 July 2004 IEEE . pp. 140-147

Time for a new approach for reporting herbal medicine adverse events?
Peters, D., Donaldson, J., Chaussalet, T.J., Toffa, S.E., Whitehouse, J., Carroll, D. and Barry, P. 2003. Time for a new approach for reporting herbal medicine adverse events? Journal of Alternative & Complementary Medicine. 9 (5), pp. 607-609.

Modelling survival in long term care of older people
Pelletier, C., Chaussalet, T.J. and Millard, P.H. 2003. Modelling survival in long term care of older people. 1st MEDINF International Conference on Medical Informatics and Engineering (MEDINF 2003). Craiova, Romania 06-09 Oct 2003

Modelling decisions of a multidisciplinary panel for admission to long-term care
Xie, H., Chaussalet, T.J., Thompson, W.A. and Millard, P.H. 2002. Modelling decisions of a multidisciplinary panel for admission to long-term care. Health Care Management Science. 5 (4), pp. 291-295. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020338308191

Towards Automated Generation of Beliefs in BDI Logics.
Basukoski, A. and Bolotov, A. 2002. Towards Automated Generation of Beliefs in BDI Logics. Automated Reasoning Workshop ARW2002. Imperial College, London Imperial College.

Towards Automated Generation of Beliefs in BDI Logics
Basukoski, A. and Bolotov, A. 2002. Towards Automated Generation of Beliefs in BDI Logics. UK Automated Reasoning Workshop (ARW). Imperial College.

Data requirements in a model of the natural history of Alzheimer's disease
Chaussalet, T.J. and Thompson, W.A. 2001. Data requirements in a model of the natural history of Alzheimer's disease. Health Care Management Science. 4 (1), pp. 13-19. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009689329661

Subgroup analyses of cost of care in a Markov model of the natural history of Alzheimer's disease
Thompson, W.A. and Chaussalet, T.J. 2001. Subgroup analyses of cost of care in a Markov model of the natural history of Alzheimer's disease. in: Simulation in the Health and Medical Sciences 2001: Proceedings of the 2001 Western Multiconference, January 7-11 2001, Phoenix, Arizona California, USA Society for Computer Simulation. pp. 41-44

Editorial: Modelling the process of care
Chaussalet, T.J. and El-Darzi, E. 2001. Editorial: Modelling the process of care. Health Care Management Science. 4 (1), p. 5. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009659711914

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