Urumov, G. and Chountas, P. 2022. Essay on Volatility Clusters and Time Series Prediction. 2022 IEEE 11th International Conference on Intelligent Systems (IS). Warsaw, Poland 12 - 14 Oct 2022 IEEE . https://doi.org/10.1109/is57118.2022.10019619
| Title | Essay on Volatility Clusters and Time Series Prediction |
|---|---|
| Authors | Urumov, G. and Chountas, P. |
| Type | Conference paper |
| Abstract | Volatility moves in financial markets are rare and sporadic i.e., periods of low volatility typically follow each other until the regime change due to technical and/or fundamental exogenous factors. Subsequently higher volatility tends to lead to even higher volatility and vice versa. Such dynamic systems require alternative ways of representation than a static multi-layer perceptron (MLP). The prevalent models assume L-stable distributions with independent and stable increments. This contrasts with what is observed in real world. L-stable distributions miss one of the main features of financial markets – the alternation of periods of large price changes with periods of small price changes. To correct for this deficiency another, self-affine process had been introduced – Fractional Brownian Motion (FBM). FBM does not capture fat tails or fluctuations in volatility that are unrelated to the predictability of future returns. In summary, both models have strong scale-invariance property, in which the distribution of returns over different sampling intervals are identical. This property is clearly at odds with empirical observations. |
| Keywords | K-Means |
| FCM | |
| IFCM | |
| Intuitionistic fuzzy sets | |
| Volatility | |
| Neural Basis Expansion | |
| NBEATS | |
| Generative Adversarial Network | |
| GAN | |
| Year | 2022 |
| Conference | 2022 IEEE 11th International Conference on Intelligent Systems (IS) |
| Publisher | IEEE |
| Accepted author manuscript | File Access Level Open (open metadata and files) |
| Publication dates | |
| Published | 25 Jan 2023 |
| Journal citation | pp. 1-7 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1109/is57118.2022.10019619 |
| Web address (URL) of conference proceedings | http://ieee-is-2022.ibspan.waw.pl/Conference-program.pdf |
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Intelligent diagnosis of urinary tract infections in vivo, using electronic noses
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Representation and querying of temporal conflict
Chountas, P., Petrounias, I., Atanassov, K.T., Kodogiannis, V. and El-Darzi, E. 2002. Representation and querying of temporal conflict. in: Troels, A. (ed.) Flexible query answering systems: 5th International Conference, FQAS 2002, Copenhagen, Denmark, October 2002 London, UK Springer.
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