| Abstract | In this paper we study whether the disciplinary practice of temporarily excluding children from school causally affects the probability of experiencing incarceration as a young person (youth custody). We use linked administrative data on the full population of English secondary school leavers between 2010 and 2013. Those excluded are a highly selected subgroup of young people, whose expected probability of youth custody is higher than average even had they not been excluded. To isolate the impact of exclusion from other confounding influences, we use academization – a reform program implemented in England from the early 2000s, which gave schools increased autonomy over disciplinary procedures – as an instrumental variable, quasi-randomly increasing pupils’ probability of being excluded. Our findings show that schools significantly increased fixed term exclusions after academization by about 1 percentage point. We find evidence that fixed term exclusions caused an increase of 2.6 percentage points in the probability of custody by age 18. This finding highlights the importance for headteachers, teachers, and policymakers to recognize the potential risks associated with disciplinary practices in schools. |
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