Statistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management

Bongiorno, C., Gurtner, G., Lillo, F., Mantegna, R.N. and Miccichè, S. 2017. Statistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management. Journal of Air Transport Management. 58, pp. 152-163. doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.10.009

TitleStatistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management
AuthorsBongiorno, C., Gurtner, G., Lillo, F., Mantegna, R.N. and Miccichè, S.
Abstract

Understanding the relation between planned and realized flight trajectories and the determinants of flight deviations is of great importance in air traffic management. In this paper we perform an in-depth investigation of the statistical properties of planned and realized air traffic on the German airspace during a 28 day periods, corresponding to an AIRAC cycle. We find that realized trajectories are on average shorter than planned ones and this effect is stronger during night-time than day-time. Flights are more frequently deviated close to the departure airport and at a relatively large angle-to-destination. Moreover, the probability of a deviation is higher in low traffic phases. All these evidences indicate that deviations are mostly used by controllers to give directs to flights when traffic conditions allow it. Finally we introduce a new metric, termed di-fork, which is able to characterize navigation points according to the likelihood that a deviation occurs there. Di-fork allows to identify in a statistically rigorous way navigation point pairs where deviations are more (less) frequent than expected under a null hypothesis of randomness that takes into account the heterogeneity of the navigation points. Such pairs can therefore be seen as sources of flexibility (stability) of controllers' traffic management while conjugating safety and efficiency.

JournalJournal of Air Transport Management
Journal citation58, pp. 152-163
ISSN0969-6997
Year2017
PublisherElsevier
Accepted author manuscriptpaper_fork_20160215_jatm.pdf
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.10.009
Publication dates
Published in printJan 2017
Published online05 Nov 2016
Published05 Nov 2016

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