Bongiorno, C., Gurtner, G., Lillo, F., Mantegna, R.N. and Miccichè, S. 2017. Statistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management. Journal of Air Transport Management. 58, pp. 152-163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.10.009
| Title | Statistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management |
|---|---|
| Type | Journal article |
| Authors | Bongiorno, C. |
| Gurtner, G. | |
| Lillo, F. | |
| Mantegna, R.N. | |
| Miccichè, S. | |
| Abstract | Understanding the relation between planned and realized flight trajectories and the determinants of flight deviations is of great importance in air traffic management. In this paper we perform an in-depth investigation of the statistical properties of planned and realized air traffic on the German airspace during a 28 day periods, corresponding to an AIRAC cycle. We find that realized trajectories are on average shorter than planned ones and this effect is stronger during night-time than day-time. Flights are more frequently deviated close to the departure airport and at a relatively large angle-to-destination. Moreover, the probability of a deviation is higher in low traffic phases. All these evidences indicate that deviations are mostly used by controllers to give directs to flights when traffic conditions allow it. Finally we introduce a new metric, termed di-fork, which is able to characterize navigation points according to the likelihood that a deviation occurs there. Di-fork allows to identify in a statistically rigorous way navigation point pairs where deviations are more (less) frequent than expected under a null hypothesis of randomness that takes into account the heterogeneity of the navigation points. Such pairs can therefore be seen as sources of flexibility (stability) of controllers' traffic management while conjugating safety and efficiency. |
| Journal | Journal of Air Transport Management |
| Journal citation | 58, pp. 152-163 |
| ISSN | 0969-6997 |
| Year | 2017 |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Accepted author manuscript | |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.10.009 |
| Publication dates | |
| Published in print | Jan 2017 |
| Published online | 05 Nov 2016 |
| Published | 05 Nov 2016 |
| Funder | EC (European Commission) |
| Eurocontrol |
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Explainable active learning metamodelling for simulations: method and experiments for ATM performance assessment
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Mercury - An open-source platform for the evaluation of air transport mobility - presentation
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Mercury: an open source platform for the evaluation of air transport mobility
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NOSTROMO: Lessons learned, conclusions and way forward
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NOSTROMO - D5.2 - ATM Performance Metamodels - Final Release
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NOSTROMO - D5.1 - ATM Performance Metamodels - Preliminary Release
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BEACON - D5.1 First tactical model and results
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Explainable Metamodels for ATM Performance Assessment
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New mathematical model for extended arrival management capabilities
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Active Learning for Air Traffic Management Simulation Metamodeling
Riss, C., Antunes, F., Gurtner, G., Camara Pereira, F., Delgado, L. and Azevedo, C. 2022. Active Learning for Air Traffic Management Simulation Metamodeling. Transportation Research Board 101th Annual Meeting. Washington, DC 10 - 10 Jan 2022 Transportation Research Board.
An agent-based model for air transportation to capture network effects in assessing delay management mechanisms
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Credit-based mechanisms for user-driven prioritisation during ATFM regulations
Gurtner, G. 2021. Credit-based mechanisms for user-driven prioritisation during ATFM regulations. Irrgang, M. (ed.) Airline Group of the International Federation of Operational Research Society (AGIFORs). on-line 11 - 13 May 2022
D8.3 POPD - Requirement No. 7
Gurtner, G., Bolic, T., Kelly, H. and Ranger, H. 2021. D8.3 POPD - Requirement No. 7.
D8.2 POPD - Requirement No. 5
Gurtner, G., Bolic, T., Kelly, H. and Ranger, H. 2021. D8.2 POPD - Requirement No. 5.
D8.1 H - Requirement No. 1
Gurtner, G., Bolic, T., Kelly, H. and Ranger, H. 2021. D8.1 H - Requirement No. 1.
D6.1 Intermediate concept assessment report
Gurtner, G. and Bolic, T. 2021. D6.1 Intermediate concept assessment report.
Active Learning Metamodels for ATM Simulation Modeling
Riss, C., Antunes, F., Gurtner, G., Camara Pereira, F., Delgado, L. and Azevedo, C. 2021. Active Learning Metamodels for ATM Simulation Modeling. 11th SESAR Innovation Days. Virtual 07 - 09 Dec 2021 SESAR.
Pilot3 D5.1 - Verification and validation plan
Delgado, L., Kuljanin, J., Prats, X., Athanasiou, G. and Gurtner, G. 2021. Pilot3 D5.1 - Verification and validation plan.
Modus D5.1 Definition of use cases
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Network-wide assessment of ATM mechanisms using an agent-based model
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Estimating economic severity of Air Traffic Flow Management regulations
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The hidden cost of uncertainty for airspace users
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D3.1 High-level modelling requirements
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Pilot3 D2.1 - Trade-off report on multi criteria decision making techniques
de Villardi de Montlaur, A., Kuljanin, J., Prats, X., Delgado, L. and Gurtner, G. 2020. Pilot3 D2.1 - Trade-off report on multi criteria decision making techniques.
Pilot3 crew multi-criteria decision support tool estimating performance indicators and uncertainty
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Pilot3 D1.1 - Technical resources and problem definition
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Domino D1.2 - Final Project Results Report
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A multi-layer model for long-term KPI alignment forecasts for the air transportation system
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New centrality and causality metrics assessing air traffic network interactions
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Domino D3.3 - Adaptive case studies description
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Domino D5.3 Final tool and model description, and case studies results
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Zaoli, S., Mazzarisi, P., Valput, D., Cook, A.J. and Lillo, F. 2019. Domino D5.3 Final tool and model description, and case studies results. SESAR.
Airport economic value – informing business models
Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Graham, A. and Cristobal, S. 2019. Airport economic value – informing business models. ART Workshop on Aviation Economics and Business Models. Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile, Toulouse, France 16 - 17 Apr 2019 EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre.
Modelling the coupling of ATM systems
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Assessing ATM impacts and interactions
Gurtner, G., Delgado, L. and Cook, A.J. 2019. Assessing ATM impacts and interactions. SESAR ER project ‘Domino’ workshop. Brussels, Belgium 04 Jun 2019
Network-wide assessment of 4D trajectory adjustments using an agent-based model
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J. and Lillo, F. 2019. Network-wide assessment of 4D trajectory adjustments using an agent-based model . SESAR Innovation Days. Athens, Greece 02 - 06 Dec 2019 SESAR.
D4.1: Gaps, bottlenecks and results: the methodology
Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J. and CAMERA Consortium 2019. D4.1: Gaps, bottlenecks and results: the methodology. CAMERA Consortium.
CAMERA – Mobility Report 1
Cook, A.J., Gurtner, G. and CAMERA Consortium 2019. CAMERA – Mobility Report 1. CAMERA Consortium.
Domino D6.3 - Workshop results summary
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2019. Domino D6.3 - Workshop results summary. SESAR.
Domino D2.2 - Database structure
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Bolic, T., Bassi, P. and Cook, A.J. 2019. Domino D2.2 - Database structure. SESAR.
Domino D5.2 - Investigative case studies results
Lillo, F., Mazzarisi, P., Zaoli, S., Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Valput, D., Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2019. Domino D5.2 - Investigative case studies results. SESAR.
Domino D5.1 - Metrics and analysis approach
Lillo, F., Mazzarisi, P., Zaoli, S., Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J. and Castelli, L. 2019. Domino D5.1 - Metrics and analysis approach. SESAR.
Vista D6.3 - Stakeholder consultation on initial assessment
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G. and Tanner, G. 2018. Vista D6.3 - Stakeholder consultation on initial assessment. SESAR.
Domino D6.2 - Stakeholders' consultation on system and investigative case studies
Delgado, L., Tanner, G., Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2018. Domino D6.2 - Stakeholders' consultation on system and investigative case studies.
Domino D3.2 - Investigative case studies description
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Pilon, N. and Tanner, G. 2018. Domino D3.2 - Investigative case studies description.
Domino D4.1 - Initial model design
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Pilon, N., Valput, D., Cristobal, S. and Tanner, G. 2018. Domino D4.1 - Initial model design.
Vista D1.2 - Final Project Results Report
Cook, A.J., Gurtner, G., Delgado, L. and Tanner, G. 2018. Vista D1.2 - Final Project Results Report. SESAR.
Vista D5.2 - Final Assessment Report
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cristobal, S., Martín, J. and Cook, A.J. 2018. Vista D5.2 - Final Assessment Report. SESAR.
A multi-layer model for long-term KPI aligment forecast
Gurtner, G., Delgado, L., Cook, A.J., Martín, J. and Cristobal, S. 2018. A multi-layer model for long-term KPI aligment forecast. 8th SESAR Innovation Days. Salzburg 03 - 06 Dec 2018 SESAR.
Airline disruption management with aircraft swapping and reinforcement learning
Hondet, G., Delgado, L. and Gurtner, G. 2018. Airline disruption management with aircraft swapping and reinforcement learning. 8th SESAR Innovation Days. Salzburg 03 - 06 Dec 2018 SESAR.
Towards new metrics assessing air traffic network interactions
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D2.1 – Establishment of Performance Framework
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Gurtner, G., Delgado, L. and Cristobal, S. 2018. D2.1 – Establishment of Performance Framework. http://h2020camera.eu/ Innaxis.
Domino D6.2 - Stakeholders' consultation on system and investigative case studies
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Tanner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2018. Domino D6.2 - Stakeholders' consultation on system and investigative case studies.
Domino D3.1 - Architecture definition
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Valput, D., Pilon, N., Guichard, L., Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2018. Domino D3.1 - Architecture definition.
Domino D2.1 - Data management and sources
Bolic, T., Castelli, L., Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Tanner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2018. Domino D2.1 - Data management and sources.
Domino D6.1 - Dissemination plan and project visual identity
Ureta, H., Gomez, I., Tanner, G., Delgado, L., Guichard, L., Bolic, T., Lillo, F. and Cook, A.J. 2018. Domino D6.1 - Dissemination plan and project visual identity.
Domino D1.1 - Project Management Plan
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Tanner, G., Cook, A.J., Guichard, L., Bolic, T., Lillo, F. and Cristobal, S. 2018. Domino D1.1 - Project Management Plan.
Vista D5.1 - Initial Assessment Report
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cristobal, S., Martín, J. and Cook, A.J. 2018. Vista D5.1 - Initial Assessment Report.
The economic value of additional airport departure capacity
Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Graham, A. and Cristobal, S. 2018. The economic value of additional airport departure capacity. Journal of Air Transport Management. 69, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.01.001
Strategic allocation of flight plans in air traffic management: an evolutionary point of view
Gurtner, G. and Lillo, F. 2018. Strategic allocation of flight plans in air traffic management: an evolutionary point of view. Dynamic Games and Applications. 8 (4), p. 799–821. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13235-017-0236-4
Vista D2.1 Supporting Data for Business and Regulatory Scenarios Report
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Plets, H., Perez, D., Cristobal, S., Triska, A., Patey, S. and Andrésson, E.I. 2017. Vista D2.1 Supporting Data for Business and Regulatory Scenarios Report.
Vista D6.2 - Stakeholder Consultation on Business and Regulatory Scenarios
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G. and Tanner, G. 2017. Vista D6.2 - Stakeholder Consultation on Business and Regulatory Scenarios.
DATASET2050 D5.2 - Assessment execution
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Gurtner, G., Ureta, H., Cristobal, S., Belkoura, S., Gómez, I., Paul, A., Kluge, U. and Hullah, P. 2017. DATASET2050 D5.2 - Assessment execution.
DATASET2050 D5.1 - Mobility assessment
Hullah, P., Kirby, S., Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Gurtner, G., Ureta, H., Cristobal, S. and Gómez, I. 2017. DATASET2050 D5.1 - Mobility assessment.
Building a Holistic ATM Model for Future KPI Trade-Offs
Gurtner, G., Delgado, L., Cook, A.J., Martin, J., Cristobal, S. and Plets, H. 2017. Building a Holistic ATM Model for Future KPI Trade-Offs. Schaefer, D. (ed.) SESAR Innovation Days 2017. Belgrade, Serbia 28 - 30 Nov 2017 SESAR.
Building a Holistic ATM Model for Future KPI Trade-Offs
Gurtner, G., Delgado, L., Cook, A.J., Martin, J., Cristobal, S. and Plets, H. 2017. Building a Holistic ATM Model for Future KPI Trade-Offs. Schaefer, D. (ed.) SESAR Innovation Days 2017. Belgrade, Serbia 28 - 30 Nov 2017 SESAR.
Indicator development: how could we improve existing indicators and which new ones do we need?
Cook, A.J., Gurtner, G. and Delgado, L. 2017. Indicator development: how could we improve existing indicators and which new ones do we need? Vista Workshop. Vienna, Austria 23 - 23 Oct 2017
The Vista model: the challenges of building a holistic model across the strategic, pre-tactical and tactical phases of ATM
Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J. and Delgado, L. 2017. The Vista model: the challenges of building a holistic model across the strategic, pre-tactical and tactical phases of ATM. Vista Workshop. Vienna, Austria 23 - 23 Oct 2017
Modelling the 2035 and 2050 timeframes: key business and regulatory factors to be considered
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2017. Modelling the 2035 and 2050 timeframes: key business and regulatory factors to be considered. Vista workshop. Vienna, Austria 23 Oct 2017
Modelling strategic trade-offs - insights into the SESAR ‘Vista’ project
Cook, A.J., Delgado, L. and Gurtner, G. 2017. Modelling strategic trade-offs - insights into the SESAR ‘Vista’ project . AGIFORS 57th Annual Symposium. London 02 - 06 Oct 2017
Understanding KPI trade-offs - key challenges of modelling architectures and data acquisition
Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2017. Understanding KPI trade-offs - key challenges of modelling architectures and data acquisition. Data Science in Aviation 2017 Workshop. Cologne, Germany 29 Sep 2017
Vista - market forces trade‐offs impacting European ATM performance
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2017. Vista - market forces trade‐offs impacting European ATM performance. COCTA Workshop: Improving Performance in ATM – Innovative institutions, mechanisms and incentives. Frankfurt, Germany 27 Sep 2017
Performance measurement in a world of targets and trade-offs
Cook, A.J. and Gurtner, G. 2017. Performance measurement in a world of targets and trade-offs. EUROCONTROL Agency Research Team. University of Westminster, London 25 - 26 Apr 2017
Vista D4.1 - Initial Framework Definition
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Cristobal, S. and Martin, J. 2017. Vista D4.1 - Initial Framework Definition.
Vista D3.1 - Business and Regulatory Scenarios Report
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Plets, H., Huet, D., Perez, D., Cristobal, S., Triska, A, Patey, S. and Andresson, E. I. 2017. Vista D3.1 - Business and Regulatory Scenarios Report.
An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario
Gurtner, G., Bongiorno, C., Ducci, M. and Miccichè, S. 2017. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario. Journal of Air Transport Management. 59, pp. 26-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.11.004
DATASET2050 D2.2 - Data-driven Model
Cristobal, S., Ureta, H., Perez, D., Paul, A., Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2016. DATASET2050 D2.2 - Data-driven Model. Innaxis.
Study on the Modelling of Airport Economic Value
Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Graham, A. and Cristobal, S. 2016. Study on the Modelling of Airport Economic Value. Eurocontrol.
DATASET2050 D4.2 - Future supply profile
Tanner, G., Cook, A.J., Gurtner, G., Graham, A., Delgado, L., Cristobal, S., Ureta, H., Paul, A., Kluge, U., Mennig, P. and Hullah, P. 2016. DATASET2050 D4.2 - Future supply profile.
The economic value of adding capacity at airports – a data-driven model
Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Graham, A., Cristobal, S. and Huet, D. 2016. The economic value of adding capacity at airports – a data-driven model. Schaefer, D. (ed.) Sixth SESAR Innovation Days. Delft, Netherlands 08 - 10 Nov 2016 SESAR.
Applying complexity science to air traffic management
Cook, A.J., Blom, H., Lillo, F., Mantegna, R., Miccichè, S., S, Rivas, D., Vázquez, R., Zanin, M. and Mantegnad, R. 2015. Applying complexity science to air traffic management. Journal of Air Transport Management. 42, pp. 149-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.09.011
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