Opening the Simulation Box: Towards Explainable Metamodels for Enhanced Air Traffic Management Performance Assessment

Riis, C., Antunes, F., Bolic, T., Gurtner, G., Camara Pereira, F. and Lima Azevedo, C. 2023. Opening the Simulation Box: Towards Explainable Metamodels for Enhanced Air Traffic Management Performance Assessment. Transportation Research Board 102nd Annual Meeting. Washington D.C., USA 08 - 12 Jan 2023 Transportation Research Board.

TitleOpening the Simulation Box: Towards Explainable Metamodels for Enhanced Air Traffic Management Performance Assessment
AuthorsRiis, C., Antunes, F., Bolic, T., Gurtner, G., Camara Pereira, F. and Lima Azevedo, C.
TypeConference paper
Abstract

Fast-time simulation constitutes a well-known and long-established technique within the Air Traffic Management (ATM) community. Due to the overwhelming complexity at both airspace and ground operations levels, simulation modeling is a commonly employed approach to study and assess real-world ATM systems. However, it is often the case that simulation input and output spaces are underutilized, limiting the full understandability, transparency, and interpretability of the obtained results. In this paper, we propose a methodology that combines simulation metamodeling and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values, aimed at uncovering the intricate hidden relationships among the input and output variables of a simulated ATM system in a rather practical way. Whereas metamodeling provides explicit functional approximations mimicking the behavior of the simulators, the SHAP-based analysis delivers a systematic framework for improving their explainability, thereby enhancing the overall understanding of the interactions among the variables of interest.
We illustrate our approach using a state-of-the-art ATM simulator across two case studies in which two delay-centered performance metrics are analyzed w.r.t. seven input variables. The results show that the proposed methodology can effectively make simulation and its results more explainable, facilitating the interpretation of obtained associated emergent behavior, and additionally opening new opportunities towards novel performance assessment processes within the ATM
research field.

KeywordsAir Traffic Management Simulation Modeling
Simulation Metamodeling
XGBoost
Model Explainability
SHAP values
Year2023
ConferenceTransportation Research Board 102nd Annual Meeting
PublisherTransportation Research Board
ProjectNOSTROMO
FunderSESAR

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Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J. and Delgado, L. 2017. The Vista model: the challenges of building a holistic model across the strategic, pre-tactical and tactical phases of ATM. Vista Workshop. Vienna, Austria 23 - 23 Oct 2017

Modelling the 2035 and 2050 timeframes: key business and regulatory factors to be considered
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2017. Modelling the 2035 and 2050 timeframes: key business and regulatory factors to be considered. Vista workshop. Vienna, Austria 23 Oct 2017

Modelling strategic trade-offs - insights into the SESAR ‘Vista’ project
Cook, A.J., Delgado, L. and Gurtner, G. 2017. Modelling strategic trade-offs - insights into the SESAR ‘Vista’ project . AGIFORS 57th Annual Symposium. London 02 - 06 Oct 2017

Understanding KPI trade-offs - key challenges of modelling architectures and data acquisition
Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2017. Understanding KPI trade-offs - key challenges of modelling architectures and data acquisition. Data Science in Aviation 2017 Workshop. Cologne, Germany 29 Sep 2017

Vista - market forces trade‐offs impacting European ATM performance
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2017. Vista - market forces trade‐offs impacting European ATM performance. COCTA Workshop: Improving Performance in ATM – Innovative institutions, mechanisms and incentives. Frankfurt, Germany 27 Sep 2017

Performance measurement in a world of targets and trade-offs
Cook, A.J. and Gurtner, G. 2017. Performance measurement in a world of targets and trade-offs. EUROCONTROL Agency Research Team. University of Westminster, London 25 - 26 Apr 2017

Vista D4.1 - Initial Framework Definition
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Cristobal, S. and Martin, J. 2017. Vista D4.1 - Initial Framework Definition.

Vista D3.1 - Business and Regulatory Scenarios Report
Delgado, L., Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Plets, H., Huet, D., Perez, D., Cristobal, S., Triska, A, Patey, S. and Andresson, E. I. 2017. Vista D3.1 - Business and Regulatory Scenarios Report.

An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario
Gurtner, G., Bongiorno, C., Ducci, M. and Miccichè, S. 2017. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario. Journal of Air Transport Management. 59, pp. 26-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.11.004

Statistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management
Bongiorno, C., Gurtner, G., Lillo, F., Mantegna, R.N. and Miccichè, S. 2017. Statistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management. Journal of Air Transport Management. 58, pp. 152-163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.10.009

DATASET2050 D2.2 - Data-driven Model
Cristobal, S., Ureta, H., Perez, D., Paul, A., Gurtner, G. and Cook, A.J. 2016. DATASET2050 D2.2 - Data-driven Model. Innaxis.

Study on the Modelling of Airport Economic Value
Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Graham, A. and Cristobal, S. 2016. Study on the Modelling of Airport Economic Value. Eurocontrol.

DATASET2050 D4.2 - Future supply profile
Tanner, G., Cook, A.J., Gurtner, G., Graham, A., Delgado, L., Cristobal, S., Ureta, H., Paul, A., Kluge, U., Mennig, P. and Hullah, P. 2016. DATASET2050 D4.2 - Future supply profile.

The economic value of adding capacity at airports – a data-driven model
Gurtner, G., Cook, A.J., Graham, A., Cristobal, S. and Huet, D. 2016. The economic value of adding capacity at airports – a data-driven model. Schaefer, D. (ed.) Sixth SESAR Innovation Days. Delft, Netherlands 08 - 10 Nov 2016 SESAR.

Automation adoption and adaptation: Case study of user request evaluation tool
Bolic, T. and Hansen, M. 2005. Automation adoption and adaptation: Case study of user request evaluation tool. Transportation Research Record. 1915 (1), pp. 62-68. https://doi.org/10.3141/1915-08

Controller-pilot radio channel utilization and cognitive issues
Bolic, T., Rakas, J. and Hansen, M. 2005. Controller-pilot radio channel utilization and cognitive issues. 6th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar 2005. Baltimore, Maryland, USA 27 - 30 Jun 2005

User Request Evaluation Tool and Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications Integration Benefits Assessment
Rakas, J., Hansen, M., Jirajaruporn, W. and Bolic, T. 2003. User Request Evaluation Tool and Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications Integration Benefits Assessment. Transportation Research Record. 1850 (1), pp. 20-29. https://doi.org/10.3141/1850-03

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