|Title||Long Term Traffic Forecasts and Operating Pattern for a Regional Airport|
A common problem facing airport planners is to estimate the detail of the flight schedule that will be operated at an airport in future years. This is important to assess issues such as capacity requirements, noise and emission outputs and connectivity. For airline commercial analysts it is necessary to understand the competitive pressures and opportunities that will develop in different markets. This paper uses an approach adopted for the VANTAGE project, conducted for the UK Department of Trade and Industry to forecast the detail of airline operations at UK regional airports on a 10-20 year horizon. The paper considers a generalised forecast at the route level and how this can then be disaggregated into detail such as aircraft size, airline and flight schedule. The existing routes and frequencies are used as a basis. The detailed history of service to each international destination from the UK is used to model the future service. The extra frequencies created by the traffic model are then allocated to airlines and time windows using the D’Hondt method of highest averages. An example peak week schedule is presented for Aberdeen airport accompanied by a commentary on the key strategic and policy implications for the industry.
|Keywords||Airports, Airlines, Routes, Forecasts, Schedule|
|Conference||Air Transport Research Society World Conference|
|Publisher||Air Transport Research Society|
|Accepted author manuscript|