VANTAGE Phase 1, Traffic Flow Model

Cook, A.J., Tanner, G. and Dennis, N. 2007. VANTAGE Phase 1, Traffic Flow Model. University of Westminster.

TitleVANTAGE Phase 1, Traffic Flow Model
AuthorsCook, A.J., Tanner, G. and Dennis, N.
TypeProject report
Abstract

This document summarises work completed for Stages 1 to 4 of the VANTAGE Traffic Flow Model (Workpackage 4.2.2). It comprises Deliverables D4.2.2.8 (updated methodological description, critical commentary on the forecasts and results for Stage 4 of the Traffic Flow Model) and D4.2.2.9 (the full model outputs, as CSV files, plus the electronic model itself). We have previously reported on Stages 1 and 2. Stage 3 refinements are reported alongside those made in Stage 4 in this Deliverable.

In Stage 1, we developed the route and passenger forecasts for 2015, for the UK regional airports. We produced passenger forecasts for the whole of the year 2015 (primarily based on 1995 and 2005 CAA-sourced data), and route and frequency forecasts which related to a peak week in July 2015 (primarily based on 1995 and 2005 OAG-sourced data), split into international, plus ‘domestic and Eire’ forecasts.

In Stage 2, we specified the actual routes forecast for all UK regional airports, for the peak week in July 2015. An example peak week schedule for Aberdeen was furnished.

The schedules and forecasts have been built from a supporting database of over 10 500 flights. Several independent models were built, and integrated, to produce the initial output tables. Extensive data cleaning was necessary for this task.

In Stages 3 and 4, a number of enhancements have been incorporated into the algorithms for the model, including the integration of some basic, alternative macro-level assumptions (such as higher/lower growth rates). New methods for the balancing of domestic routes and incorporation of different runway constraints are discussed. The challenges of producing parallel charter and cargo estimates are also explored.

Seven pre-defined forecast scenarios that simulate varying degrees of economic growth and fuel price have been developed and form the basis of the output generated by the model. The baseline (scenario 1) forecast is discussed in detail in this Deliverable, and forms the basis of the outputs herein. In addition, output tables (traffic forecasts and timetables) for all seven scenarios accompany this document.

Total CO2, aggregated across all the scheduled passenger flight movements from the 36 regional forecasts have been calculated for each of the seven scenarios. A new model was also built for this computation. CO2 estimates extend beyond the UK UIR/FIR boundary, thus complementing the higher-fidelity TMA estimates computed within the Synthetic Environment.

Year2007
PublisherUniversity of Westminster
Publication dates
Completed2007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:BERRProjectNo:TP/3/DSM/6/I/15530;DeliverableVANTAGE-UOW-4220-DD-08

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Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Jovanovic, R. and Lawes, A. 2009. The cost of delay to air transport in Europe: quantification and management. 13th Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference. Abu Dhabi, UAE 27th - 30th June 2009

The challenge of managing airline delay costs
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2009. The challenge of managing airline delay costs. German Aviation Research Society and University of Belgrade, Conference on Air Traffic Management Economics. University of Belgrade, Serbia 10th - 11th September 2009

Dynamic cost indexing: managing airline delay costs
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Williams, V. and Meise, G. 2009. Dynamic cost indexing: managing airline delay costs. Journal of Air Transport Management. 15 (1), pp. 26-35.

Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Electronic prototype of a dynamic cost indexing tool
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2008. Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Electronic prototype of a dynamic cost indexing tool. Deliverable (prototype tool), EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre.

Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Airline costs of delayed passengers and how to estimate full network delay costs
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2008. Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Airline costs of delayed passengers and how to estimate full network delay costs. Transport Studies Group, University of Westminster.

Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Aircraft crewing – marginal delay costs
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2008. Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Aircraft crewing – marginal delay costs. Transport Studies Group, University of Westminster.

Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Aircraft maintenance – marginal delay costs
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2008. Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Aircraft maintenance – marginal delay costs. Transport Studies Group, University of Westminster.

Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Including climate impacts of NOx in a Dynamic Cost Indexing
Cook, A.J., Williams, V. and Tanner, G. 2008. Innovative Cooperative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Programme CARE INO III: Dynamic Cost Indexing: Including climate impacts of NOx in a Dynamic Cost Indexing. EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre.

DISTILLATE: A KonSULT-based strategy option generator
Kelly, C., May, A., Jopson, A., Gawthorpe, S., Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2008. DISTILLATE: A KonSULT-based strategy option generator. KonSULT.

The impact of low cost airline operations to Malta
Graham, A. and Dennis, N. 2008. The impact of low cost airline operations to Malta. 48th Congress of the European Regional Science Association. Liverpool, UK 27 - 31 August 2008

Comparative analysis of regional airline industry in Europe and North America and some insight into current developments
Dennis, N., Smyth, A. and Stevens, K. 2008. Comparative analysis of regional airline industry in Europe and North America and some insight into current developments. Transportation Research Record. 2052, pp. 118-125.

Development of new services from regional airports
Dennis, N. 2008. Development of new services from regional airports. in: Lupi, M. (ed.) Methods and models for planning the development of regional airport systems Milan FrancoAngeli. pp. 29-46

Understanding and managing the costs of delay to airlines
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Williams, V. and Meise, G. 2008. Understanding and managing the costs of delay to airlines. NATS Workshop. NATS Corporate and Technical Centre, Swanwick 02 Jul 2008

Understanding and managing the costs of delay to airlines
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Williams, V. and Meise, G. 2008. Understanding and managing the costs of delay to airlines. EUROCONTROL Innovative Research Workshop. EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, Brétigny sur Orge, France 17 June 2008

Dynamic cost indexing: cost estimations and building the prototype
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Williams, V. and Meise, G. 2008. Dynamic cost indexing: cost estimations and building the prototype. 7th EUROCONTROL Innovative Research Workshop & Exhibition. EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre 2 - 4 Dec 2008

Managing the Acceptance of Change in ATM
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2008. Managing the Acceptance of Change in ATM. Air Traffic Control Quarterly. 16 (3), pp. 235-254.

Dynamic cost indexing
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2008. Dynamic cost indexing. European ATM Innovation Symposium. University of Southampton 16 Jan 2008

Attitudes to change in ATM operations: introduction of CDA trials at Manchester, Bucharest, and Stockholm
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2007. Attitudes to change in ATM operations: introduction of CDA trials at Manchester, Bucharest, and Stockholm. Brussels, Belgium European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation.

Competition and change in the long-haul markets of Europe
Dennis, N. 2007. Competition and change in the long-haul markets of Europe. Journal of Air Transportation. 12 (2), pp. 4-26.

End of the free lunch? The responses of traditional European airlines to the low-cost carrier threat
Dennis, N. 2007. End of the free lunch? The responses of traditional European airlines to the low-cost carrier threat. Journal of Air Transport Management. 13 (5), pp. 311-321.

Airport traffic and financial performance: a UK & Ireland case study
Graham, A. and Dennis, N. 2007. Airport traffic and financial performance: a UK & Ireland case study. Journal of Transport Geography. 15 (3), pp. 161-171.

The transferability of the low-cost model to long-haul airline operations
Francis, G., Dennis, N., Ison, S. and Humphreys, I. 2007. The transferability of the low-cost model to long-haul airline operations. Tourism Management. 28 (2), pp. 391-398.

The principles of flight planning and ATM messaging
Tanner, G. 2007. The principles of flight planning and ATM messaging. in: Cook, A.J. (ed.) European air traffic management: principles, practice, and research Aldershot Ashgate. pp. 35-64

Option generation tools for sustainable urban transport strategies
May, A., Jopson, A., Gawthorpe, S., Kelly, C., Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2007. Option generation tools for sustainable urban transport strategies. 11th World Conference on Transportation Research. Berkeley, USA 24 - 29 Jun 2007

The future of European air transport operations
Dennis, N. 2007. The future of European air transport operations. in: Dennis, N. (ed.) European air traffic management: principles, practice, and research Aldershot Ashgate. pp. 151-180

Stimulation or saturation? Perspectives on European low-cost airline market and prospects for growth
Dennis, N. 2007. Stimulation or saturation? Perspectives on European low-cost airline market and prospects for growth. Transportation Research Record. 2007, pp. 52-59.

Dynamic cost indexing
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Williams, V. and Meise, G. 2007. Dynamic cost indexing. 6th EUROCONTROL Innovative Research Workshops & Exhibition. EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, Brétigny sur Orge, France 04 - 06 Dec 2007

A psychosocial approach to understanding pilot and controller acceptance of change in ATM, based on three CDA case studies
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G., Pilon, N. and Joyce, T. 2007. A psychosocial approach to understanding pilot and controller acceptance of change in ATM, based on three CDA case studies. 7th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar. Barcelona, Spain 02 - 05 Jul 2007 EUROCONTROL/FAA.

Designing an effective survey of air travellers
Cook, A.J. and Lawes, A. 2007. Designing an effective survey of air travellers. Marketing and Market Research for Air Transport: Theory and Practice (University of Westminster external short course). University of Westminster, London, UK 28 Feb - 02 Mar 2007

The management and costs of delay
Cook, A.J. 2007. The management and costs of delay. in: Cook, A.J. (ed.) European air traffic management: principles, practice, and research Aldershot Ashgate. pp. 97-122

Industry consolidation and future airline network structures in Europe
Dennis, N. 2005. Industry consolidation and future airline network structures in Europe. Journal of Air Transport Management. 11 (3), pp. 175-183.

Sustainable disposal of domestic sanitary waste
Ashley, R., Blackwood, D., Souter, N., Hendry, S., Moir, J., Dunkerley, J., Davies, J., Butler, D., Cook, A.J., Conlin, J., Squibbs, M., Britton, A. and Goldie, P. 2005. Sustainable disposal of domestic sanitary waste. Journal of Environmental Engineering. 131 (2), pp. 206-215.

"Citizens" study: results of European focus groups examining public perceptions of air transport growth and ATM
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2005. "Citizens" study: results of European focus groups examining public perceptions of air transport growth and ATM. London, UK EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre.

Attitudes t societal demands in ATM operations: introduction of a B-CDA trial at Manchester Airport
Cook, A.J. and Tanner, G. 2005. Attitudes t societal demands in ATM operations: introduction of a B-CDA trial at Manchester Airport. Cedex, France EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre.

Measuring the effectiveness of campaigns: lessons for mobility management from the EU TAPESTRY project
Tyler, S. and Cook, A.J. 2004. Measuring the effectiveness of campaigns: lessons for mobility management from the EU TAPESTRY project. European Conference on Mobility Management (ECOMM 2004). Lyon, France 05-07 May 2004

Designing an effective survey of air travellers
Lawes, A. and Cook, A.J. 2004. Designing an effective survey of air travellers. Marketing and Market Research for Air Transport: Theory and Practice. London, UK 01-02 Dec 2004

The future of long-haul air services from Europe
Dennis, N. 2004. The future of long-haul air services from Europe. in: European Transport Conference (ETC 2004) Association for European Transport.

Running out of steam? The growth prospects for European low-cost airlines
Dennis, N. 2004. Running out of steam? The growth prospects for European low-cost airlines. 2004 Air Transport Research Society World Conference. Istanbul, Turkey 01-03 July 2004

Can the European low-cost airline boom continue? Implications for regional airports
Dennis, N. 2004. Can the European low-cost airline boom continue? Implications for regional airports. 44th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association. Porto, Portugal 25-29 Aug 2004

Understanding the true cost of delay to airline operators
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G. and Anderson, S. 2004. Understanding the true cost of delay to airline operators. Managing Airline Operating Costs Conference. Lisbon, Portugal 08 Dec 2004

Evaluating the true cost to airlines of one minute of airborne or ground delay: final report
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G. and Anderson, S. 2004. Evaluating the true cost to airlines of one minute of airborne or ground delay: final report. Brussels, Belgium Eurocontrol.

Analysing the potential impacts of sustainable distribution measures in UK urban areas
Allen, J., Browne, M., Tanner, G., Christodoulou, G. and Jones, P.M. 2004. Analysing the potential impacts of sustainable distribution measures in UK urban areas. in: Taniguchi, E. and Thompson, R.G. (ed.) Logistics systems for sustainable cities: proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on City Logistics (Madeira, Portugal, 25-27 June 2003) UK Elsevier.

Boom or bust? The future of the low-cost airlines in Europe
Dennis, N. 2003. Boom or bust? The future of the low-cost airlines in Europe. in: Annual European Transport Conference (ETC 2003) UNKNOWN.

Sustainable urban distribution: evaluating policy measures
Browne, M., Allen, J., Tanner, G., Anderson, S., Christodoulou, G. and Jones, P.M. 2003. Sustainable urban distribution: evaluating policy measures. Proceedings of the 8th Logistics Research Network Conference. London 10 - 12 Sep 2003

Modelling policy measures and company initiatives for sustainable urban distribution
Allen, J., Tanner, G., Browne, M., Anderson, S., Christodoulou, G. and Jones, P.M. 2003. Modelling policy measures and company initiatives for sustainable urban distribution. UK University of Westminster.

Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport
Dennis, N. 2002. Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport. Journal of Air Transport Management. 8 (5), pp. 313-324.

The crisis in air transport and the future structure of European airlines and airports
Dennis, N. and Graham, A. 2002. The crisis in air transport and the future structure of European airlines and airports. in: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 9-11 September 2002 London, UK Association for European Transport.

Budget airlines
Dennis, N. 2002. Budget airlines. Insights. ISS-55 (ART-106), pp. D9-D17.

The valuation of reliability for personal travel
Bates, J., Polak, J., Jones, P.M. and Cook, A.J. 2001. The valuation of reliability for personal travel. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. 37 (2-3), pp. 191-229.

Airport environmental capacity and developments in airline operations
Dennis, N. and Graham, A. 2001. Airport environmental capacity and developments in airline operations. SCAN-UK Conference. Manchester Metropolitan University 02 -03 Apr 2001

Conditional route implementation phase 1: AO use of CDRs
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G. and Anderson, S. 2001. Conditional route implementation phase 1: AO use of CDRs. UK University of Westminster.

Developments of hubbing at European airports
Dennis, N. 2001. Developments of hubbing at European airports. Air and Space Europe. 3 (1/2), pp. 51-55.

Scheduling issues and network strategies for international airline alliances
Dennis, N. 2000. Scheduling issues and network strategies for international airline alliances. Journal of Air Transport Management. 6 (2), pp. 75-85.

Low cost airlines and scheduled airline operations
Dennis, N. 2000. Low cost airlines and scheduled airline operations. Transport Economist. 27 (2), pp. 1-8.

UK generation of electricity from biomass resources: preliminary resource analyses and infrastructure modelling
Allen, J., Cook, A.J. and Palmer, H. 1996. UK generation of electricity from biomass resources: preliminary resource analyses and infrastructure modelling. Scottish Agricultural Economics Review. 9, pp. 73-79.

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