The evolution of scheduled air routes between the UK and Europe and the changing role of low-cost and network carriers

Dennis, N. 2024. The evolution of scheduled air routes between the UK and Europe and the changing role of low-cost and network carriers. European Transport Conference. Leiden, The Netherlands 06 - 08 Oct 2008 Association for European Transport.

TitleThe evolution of scheduled air routes between the UK and Europe and the changing role of low-cost and network carriers
AuthorsDennis, N.
TypeConference paper
Abstract

This paper considers the change in air service provision on routes between the UK and Europe over a twenty-year period from 1997-2017 along with the developments that have occurred as a result of the pandemic and Brexit in recent years. UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), Official Airline Guide (OAG) and UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) data is used to analyse demand and supply for airline operations and their geographical distribution along with the journey purpose and characteristics of travellers.

Routes from London are studied first as this is where there is a long time series of low-cost carrier presence dating back to the foundation of easyJet in 1995 and the expansion of Ryanair into the UK market following EU deregulation of air transport between 1993-97. These are divided into three categories where different impacts can be identified. Trunk routes to other major hub cities such as Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Zurich, Madrid and Paris demonstrate modest growth in traffic and a still strong position for the two legacy carriers involved. Other primary routes to cities that are not major hubs (e.g. Barcelona, Berlin, Nice, Geneva) have generally seen higher growth – especially for points in southern Europe – and one of the traditional airlines has reduced or withdrawn its service while low-cost carriers have taken around 50% of the market. The secondary routes (which includes a large and varied number of destinations) is where the low-cost carrier impact has been greatest. This is particularly true of places with some tourism potential where low-cost airlines have driven large fare reductions leading to a surge in demand, capturing the great majority of the traffic. A different pattern is evident for more business focused destinations however with much less growth.

The recent developments show demand returning to or exceeding pre-pandemic levels to locations south of Switzerland from the UK and the low-cost carrier share of the traffic is typically stable or increasing. It is a different picture in northern Europe however where many services are languishing well behind 2019 traffic levels which is reflected in a loss of business passengers, exacerbated by Brexit effects which have also reduced student movements, migrant labour flows and government related traffic. Environmental pressures to reduce air travel may also be playing a part in this region. The low-cost carrier share is declining in many of these markets as it is the optional, price sensitive traffic which is being squeezed out.

The UK regional airports are then considered and it is shown that this is where much of the growth in UK scheduled air traffic has occurred, driven by the low-cost airlines who have greatly expanded the number of destinations served and made air travel more affordable. Some of this demand has been diverted from long-standing charter services and this type of leisure route dominates the network away from London. Accessibility to commercial and business centres and to hubs for long-haul connections has often deteriorated however due to the operation of larger aircraft at lower frequencies without through ticketing arrangements. The smaller regional airports are also found to be the most vulnerable in economic downturns, periods of high fuel prices and the covid pandemic.

Saturation of the market appears to be occurring in many situations where the ability to divert traffic with lower fares to remote or secondary airports becomes more challenging and the natural dominance of locations such as Manchester or Edinburgh is re-asserted.

It is concluded that some European air markets from the UK may never return to 2019 traffic levels. As in the US, where the three main network carriers have seen their position strengthen since the pandemic, the low-cost carriers may be reaching the limitations of their business model in Europe also. Growth opportunities are expected to be in long-haul, hubs and differentiated products. This may lead to some changes of product offer as well as further consolidation of the airline industry. Long term trends can be detected over many years - but these have been accelerated by the reset to lifestyles and travel that has occurred following the pandemic.

KeywordsAirlines, Networks, Competition
Year2024
ConferenceEuropean Transport Conference
PublisherAssociation for European Transport
Publisher's version
File Access Level
Open (open metadata and files)
Publication dates
Published18 Sep 2024
Web address (URL) of conference proceedingshttps://aetransport.org/past-etc-papers/conference-papers-2024?abstractId=8531&state=b

Related outputs

Impact of Airport Capacity Constraints on Air Service Provision
Dennis, N. 2022. Impact of Airport Capacity Constraints on Air Service Provision. 50th European Transport Conference. Bovisa Campus of Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy 07 - 09 Sep 2022 Association for European Transport.

Towards A Short to Medium Term Mitigation Strategy to Address the External Air and Sea Connectivity Challenges posed by the COVID-19 Pandemic for Northern Ireland
Smyth, A., Dennis, N. and O’Reilly, M. 2021. Towards A Short to Medium Term Mitigation Strategy to Address the External Air and Sea Connectivity Challenges posed by the COVID-19 Pandemic for Northern Ireland. Annual European Transport Conference 2021. Virtual 13 - 15 Sep 2021 Association for European Transport.

Airline schedule and network competitiveness: A consumer-centric approach for business travel
Nenum, S., Graham, A. and Dennis, N. 2020. Airline schedule and network competitiveness: A consumer-centric approach for business travel. Annals of Tourism Research . 80, p. 102822. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2019.102822

Pondhopping: Changes in Airline Competition and Service Patterns on the North Atlantic
Dennis, N. and Pitfield, D. 2018. Pondhopping: Changes in Airline Competition and Service Patterns on the North Atlantic. European Transport Conference 2018. Dublin Castle, Ireland 10 - 12 Oct 2018 Association for European Transport.

A tale of two cities: The impact of airline mergers and consolidation at London and New York
Dennis, N. and Pitfield, D.E. 2018. A tale of two cities: The impact of airline mergers and consolidation at London and New York. Transportation Research Record. 2672 (23), pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118758336

A Tale of Two Cities: The Impact of Airline Mergers and Consolidation at London and New York
Dennis, N. and Pitfield, D. 2018. A Tale of Two Cities: The Impact of Airline Mergers and Consolidation at London and New York. TRB Annual Meeting. Washington DC 07 - 11 Jan 2018

UK Regional Connectivity on the North Atlantic: Hub-Bypassing or just changing hubs?
Kremarik, F., Dennis, N. and Graham, A. 2017. UK Regional Connectivity on the North Atlantic: Hub-Bypassing or just changing hubs? 21st ATRS World Conference. Antwerp, Belgium 05 - 08 Jul 2017 ATRS.

Understanding Consumer Preferences with Airline Scheduling
Graham, A., Dennis, N. and Nenum, S. 2016. Understanding Consumer Preferences with Airline Scheduling. Air Transport Research Society Annual Conference. Rhodes 23 - 26 Jun 2016

Low cost carriers and the changing fortunes of airports in the UK
Halpern, N., Graham, A. and Dennis, N. 2016. Low cost carriers and the changing fortunes of airports in the UK. Research in Transportation Business and Management. 21, pp. 33-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2016.05.002

Long Term Traffic Forecasts and Operating Pattern for a Regional Airport
Dennis, N. 2014. Long Term Traffic Forecasts and Operating Pattern for a Regional Airport. Air Transport Research Society World Conference. Bordeaux 17 - 20 Jul 2014 Air Transport Research Society.

Optimizing Consumer Preference in Airline Scheduling
Nenum, S., Dennis, N. and Graham, A. 2014. Optimizing Consumer Preference in Airline Scheduling. 18th Annual World Conference of the Air Transport Research Society. KEDGE Business School, Bordeaux, France 17 Jul 2014

Strategies of Major Carriers Away from their Main Hub Airports: A Comparison of the European and US Experience
Dennis, N. and Stevens, K. 2013. Strategies of Major Carriers Away from their Main Hub Airports: A Comparison of the European and US Experience. Air Transport Research Society World Conference. Bergamo 26 - 29 Jun 2013 Air Transport Research Society.

The Traffic and Financial Performance of UK Regional Airports 2003-2013
Graham, A. and Dennis, N. 2013. The Traffic and Financial Performance of UK Regional Airports 2003-2013 . Air Transport Research Society Annual World Conference. Bergamo 27 Jun 2013

A Method for Developing a Consumer Preference Centric Airline Schedule Quality Metric
Nenum, S., Dennis, N. and Graham, A. 2013. A Method for Developing a Consumer Preference Centric Airline Schedule Quality Metric. Air Transport Research Society Annual World Conference. Bergamo 27 Jun 2013

The impact of low-cost airline operations to Malta
Graham, A. and Dennis, N. 2010. The impact of low-cost airline operations to Malta. Journal of Air Transport Management. 16 (3), pp. 127-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2009.07.006

Old conflicts, new rivals? Airline competition in the European market
Dennis, N. 2010. Old conflicts, new rivals? Airline competition in the European market. European Transport Conference 2010. Glasgow 11 - 13 October, 2010

Airline trends in Europe: network consolidation and the mainstreaming of low-cost strategies
Dennis, N. 2009. Airline trends in Europe: network consolidation and the mainstreaming of low-cost strategies. in: Gossling, S. and Upham, P. (ed.) Climate change and aviation: issues, challenges and solutions London Earthscan. pp. 151-176

The impact of low cost airline operations to Malta
Graham, A. and Dennis, N. 2008. The impact of low cost airline operations to Malta. 48th Congress of the European Regional Science Association. Liverpool, UK 27 - 31 August 2008

Comparative analysis of regional airline industry in Europe and North America and some insight into current developments
Dennis, N., Smyth, A. and Stevens, K. 2008. Comparative analysis of regional airline industry in Europe and North America and some insight into current developments. Transportation Research Record. 2052, pp. 118-125. https://doi.org/10.3141/2052-14

Development of new services from regional airports
Dennis, N. 2008. Development of new services from regional airports. in: Lupi, M. (ed.) Methods and models for planning the development of regional airport systems Milan FrancoAngeli. pp. 29-46

Competition and change in the long-haul markets of Europe
Dennis, N. 2007. Competition and change in the long-haul markets of Europe. Journal of Air Transportation. 12 (2), pp. 4-26.

End of the free lunch? The responses of traditional European airlines to the low-cost carrier threat
Dennis, N. 2007. End of the free lunch? The responses of traditional European airlines to the low-cost carrier threat. Journal of Air Transport Management. 13 (5), pp. 311-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2007.04.005

Airport traffic and financial performance: a UK & Ireland case study
Graham, A. and Dennis, N. 2007. Airport traffic and financial performance: a UK & Ireland case study. Journal of Transport Geography. 15 (3), pp. 161-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2006.05.001

The transferability of the low-cost model to long-haul airline operations
Francis, G., Dennis, N., Ison, S. and Humphreys, I. 2007. The transferability of the low-cost model to long-haul airline operations. Tourism Management. 28 (2), pp. 391-398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.04.014

The future of European air transport operations
Dennis, N. 2007. The future of European air transport operations. in: Dennis, N. (ed.) European air traffic management: principles, practice, and research Aldershot Ashgate. pp. 151-180

Stimulation or saturation? Perspectives on European low-cost airline market and prospects for growth
Dennis, N. 2007. Stimulation or saturation? Perspectives on European low-cost airline market and prospects for growth. Transportation Research Record. 2007, pp. 52-59. https://doi.org/10.3141/2007-07

VANTAGE Phase 1, Traffic Flow Model
Cook, A.J., Tanner, G. and Dennis, N. 2007. VANTAGE Phase 1, Traffic Flow Model. University of Westminster. https://doi.org/BERRProjectNo:TP/3/DSM/6/I/15530;DeliverableVANTAGE-UOW-4220-DD-08

Industry consolidation and future airline network structures in Europe
Dennis, N. 2005. Industry consolidation and future airline network structures in Europe. Journal of Air Transport Management. 11 (3), pp. 175-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2004.07.004

The future of long-haul air services from Europe
Dennis, N. 2004. The future of long-haul air services from Europe. in: European Transport Conference (ETC 2004) Association for European Transport.

Running out of steam? The growth prospects for European low-cost airlines
Dennis, N. 2004. Running out of steam? The growth prospects for European low-cost airlines. 2004 Air Transport Research Society World Conference. Istanbul, Turkey 01-03 July 2004

Can the European low-cost airline boom continue? Implications for regional airports
Dennis, N. 2004. Can the European low-cost airline boom continue? Implications for regional airports. 44th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association. Porto, Portugal 25-29 Aug 2004

Boom or bust? The future of the low-cost airlines in Europe
Dennis, N. 2003. Boom or bust? The future of the low-cost airlines in Europe. in: Annual European Transport Conference (ETC 2003) UNKNOWN.

Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport
Dennis, N. 2002. Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport. Journal of Air Transport Management. 8 (5), pp. 313-324. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6997(02)00012-1

The crisis in air transport and the future structure of European airlines and airports
Dennis, N. and Graham, A. 2002. The crisis in air transport and the future structure of European airlines and airports. in: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 9-11 September 2002 London, UK Association for European Transport.

Budget airlines
Dennis, N. 2002. Budget airlines. Insights. ISS-55 (ART-106), pp. D9-D17.

Airport environmental capacity and developments in airline operations
Dennis, N. and Graham, A. 2001. Airport environmental capacity and developments in airline operations. SCAN-UK Conference. Manchester Metropolitan University 02 -03 Apr 2001

Developments of hubbing at European airports
Dennis, N. 2001. Developments of hubbing at European airports. Air and Space Europe. 3 (1/2), pp. 51-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1290-0958(01)90015-2

Scheduling issues and network strategies for international airline alliances
Dennis, N. 2000. Scheduling issues and network strategies for international airline alliances. Journal of Air Transport Management. 6 (2), pp. 75-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6997(99)00027-7

Low cost airlines and scheduled airline operations
Dennis, N. 2000. Low cost airlines and scheduled airline operations. Transport Economist. 27 (2), pp. 1-8.

Permalink - https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/wwy2z/the-evolution-of-scheduled-air-routes-between-the-uk-and-europe-and-the-changing-role-of-low-cost-and-network-carriers


Share this

Usage statistics

3 total views
2 total downloads
These values cover views and downloads from WestminsterResearch and are for the period from September 2nd 2018, when this repository was created.