Predictors of the frequency and subjective experience of cycling near misses: Findings from the first two years of the UK Near Miss Project : WestminsterResearch

Publication dates
Title	Predictors of the frequency and subjective experience of cycling near misses: Findings from the first two years of the UK Near Miss Project
Authors	Aldred, R. and Goodman, A.
Abstract	Using 2014 and 2015 data from the UK Near Miss Project, this paper examines the stability of self-report incident rates for cycling near misses across these two years. It further examines the stability of the individual-level predictors of experiencing a near miss, including what influences the scariness of an incident. The paper uses three questions asked for only in 2015, which allow further exploration of factors shaping near miss rates and impacts of incidents. Firstly, a respondent's level of cycling experience; secondly, whether an incident was perceived as deliberate; and finally, whether the respondent themselves described the incident as a ‘near miss'(as opposed to only a frightening and/or annoying non-injury incident). Using this data, we find a decline of almost a third in incident rates in 2015 compared to 2014, which we believe is likely to be largely an artefact due to differences in reporting rates. This suggests caution about interpreting small fluctuations in subjectively reported near miss rates. However, in both years near miss rates are many times more frequent than injury collisions. In both years of data collection our findings are very similar in terms of the patterning of incident types, and how frightening different incident categories are, which increases confidence in these findings. We find that new cyclists experience very high incident rates compared to other cyclists, and test a conceptual model explaining how perceived deliberateness, near-miss status, and scariness are connected. For example, incidents that are perceived to be deliberate are more likely to be experienced as very frightening, independent of their ‘near miss’ status.
Keywords	Cycling; Injury; Near Misses; UK
Journal	Accident Analysis & Prevention
Journal citation	110, pp. 161-170
ISSN	0001-4575
Year	2018
Publisher	Elsevier
Accepted author manuscript	17060_NMP_Y2_paper_for_website.pdf
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)	doi:10.1016/j.aap.2017.09.015
Published online	30 Sep 2017
Published	30 Sep 2017
Published in print	Jan 2018
License	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Related outputs

Built Environment Interventions to Increase Active Travel: a Critical Review and Discussion
Aldred, R. 2019. Built Environment Interventions to Increase Active Travel: a Critical Review and Discussion. Current Environmental Health Reports . 6, pp. 309-315. doi:10.1007/s40572-019-00254-4

Who caused that congestion? Narrating driving and cycling in a changing policy context
Aldred, R. 2019. Who caused that congestion? Narrating driving and cycling in a changing policy context. Travel Behaviour and Society. 16, pp. 59-69. doi:10.1016/j.tbs.2019.04.004

Scenarios of cycling to school in England, and associated health and carbon impacts: Application of the ‘Propensity to Cycle Tool’
Goodman, A., Rojas, I.F., Woodcock, J., Aldred, R., Berkoff, N., Morgan, M., Abbas, A. and Lovelace, R. 2019. Scenarios of cycling to school in England, and associated health and carbon impacts: Application of the ‘Propensity to Cycle Tool’. Journal of Transport & Health. 12, pp. 263-278. doi:10.1016/j.jth.2019.01.008

Evaluating active travel and health economic impacts of small streetscape schemes: An exploratory study in London
Aldred, R. and Croft, J. 2019. Evaluating active travel and health economic impacts of small streetscape schemes: An exploratory study in London. Journal of Transport & Health. 12, pp. 86-96. doi:10.1016/j.jth.2018.11.009

Impacts of an active travel intervention with a cycling focus in a suburban context: One-year findings from an evaluation of London’s in-progress mini-Hollands programme
Aldred, R., Croft, J. and Goodman, A. 2019. Impacts of an active travel intervention with a cycling focus in a suburban context: One-year findings from an evaluation of London’s in-progress mini-Hollands programme. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 123, pp. 147-169. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2018.05.018

Motor traffic on urban minor and major roads: impacts on pedestrian and cyclist injuries
Aldred, R. 2019. Motor traffic on urban minor and major roads: impacts on pedestrian and cyclist injuries. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Municipal Engineer. 172 (1), pp. 3-9. doi:10.1680/jmuen.16.00068

Barriers to investing in cycling: Stakeholder views from England
Aldred, R., Watson, T., Lovelace, R. and Woodcock, J. 2019. Barriers to investing in cycling: Stakeholder views from England. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 128, pp. 149-159. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2017.11.003

Contextualising Safety in Numbers: a longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, 1991–2001 and 2001–2011
Aldred, R., Goel, H., Woodcock, J. and Goodman, A. 2019. Contextualising Safety in Numbers: a longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, 1991–2001 and 2001–2011. Injury Prevention. 25 (3), pp. 236-241. doi:10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042498

Cyclists in shared bus lanes: could there be unrecognised impacts on bus journey times?
Aldred, R., Best, L. and Jones, P. 2019. Cyclists in shared bus lanes: could there be unrecognised impacts on bus journey times? Proceedings of the ICE - Transport. 172 (3), pp. 135-151. doi:10.1680/jtran.16.00072

Estimating city-level travel patterns using street imagery: A case study of using Google Street View in Britain
Goel, R., Garcia , L.M.T., Goodman, A., Johnson, R., Aldred, R., Murugesan, M., Brage, S., Bhalla, K. and Woodcock, J. 2018. Estimating city-level travel patterns using street imagery: A case study of using Google Street View in Britain. PLoS ONE. 13 (5), p. e0196521. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0196521

Road injuries in the National Travel Survey: under-reporting and inequalities in injury risk
Aldred, R. 2018. Road injuries in the National Travel Survey: under-reporting and inequalities in injury risk. London Department of Planning and Transport, University of Westminster.

Inequalities in self-report road injury risk in Britain: A new analysis of National Travel Survey data, focusing on pedestrian injuries
Aldred, R. 2018. Inequalities in self-report road injury risk in Britain: A new analysis of National Travel Survey data, focusing on pedestrian injuries. Journal of Transport and Health. 9, pp. 96-104. doi:10.1016/j.jth.2018.03.006

Cycling injury risk in London: A case-control study exploring the impact of cycle volumes, motor vehicle volumes, and road characteristics including speed limits
Aldred, R., Goodman, A., Gulliver, J. and Woodcock, J. 2018. Cycling injury risk in London: A case-control study exploring the impact of cycle volumes, motor vehicle volumes, and road characteristics including speed limits. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 117, pp. 75-84. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2018.03.003

Invisible cyclists? Disabled people and cycle planning–A case study of London
Andrews, N., Clement, I. and Aldred, R. 2018. Invisible cyclists? Disabled people and cycle planning–A case study of London. Journal of Transport and Health. 8, pp. 146-156. doi:10.1016/j.jth.2017.11.145

The Propensity to Cycle Tool: An open source online system for sustainable transport planning
Lovelace, R., Goodman, A., Aldred, R., Berkoff, AN., Abbas, A. and Woodcock, J. 2017. The Propensity to Cycle Tool: An open source online system for sustainable transport planning. Journal of Transport and Land Use. 10 (1), pp. 505-528. doi:10.5198/jtlu.2016.862

Cycling provision separated from motor traffic: a systematic review exploring whether stated preferences vary by gender and age
Aldred, R., Elliott, B., Woodcock, J. and Goodman, A. 2017. Cycling provision separated from motor traffic: a systematic review exploring whether stated preferences vary by gender and age. Transport Reviews. 37 (1), pp. 29-55. doi:10.1080/01441647.2016.1200156

Diversifying and normalising cycling in London, UK: An exploratory study on the influence of infrastructure
Aldred, R. and Dales, J. 2017. Diversifying and normalising cycling in London, UK: An exploratory study on the influence of infrastructure. Journal of Transport and Health. 4, pp. 348-362. doi:10.1016/j.jth.2016.11.002

Trends in local newspaper reporting of London cyclist fatalities 1992-2012: the role of the media in shaping the systems dynamics of cycling
Macmillan, A., Roberts, A., Woodcock, J., Aldred, R. and Goodman, A. 2016. Trends in local newspaper reporting of London cyclist fatalities 1992-2012: the role of the media in shaping the systems dynamics of cycling. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 86, p. 137–145. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2015.10.016

Cycling near misses: their frequency, impact, and prevention
Aldred, R. 2016. Cycling near misses: their frequency, impact, and prevention. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 90, pp. 69-83. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2016.04.016

A matter of utility? Rationalising cycling, cycling rationalities
Aldred, R. 2015. A matter of utility? Rationalising cycling, cycling rationalities. Mobilities. 10 (5), pp. 686-705. doi:10.1080/17450101.2014.935149

Investigating the rates and impacts of near misses and related incidents among UK cyclists
Aldred, R. and Crosweller, Sian 2015. Investigating the rates and impacts of near misses and related incidents among UK cyclists. Journal of Transport & Health. 2 (3), pp. 379-393. doi:10.1016/j.jth.2015.05.006

Does more cycling mean more diversity in cycling?
Aldred, R., Woodcock, J. and Goodman, A. 2015. Does more cycling mean more diversity in cycling? Transport Reviews: A Transnational Transdisciplinary Journal. 36 (1), pp. 28-44. doi:10.1080/01441647.2015.1014451

Why culture matters for transport policy: the case of cycling in the UK
Aldred, R. and Jungnickel, K. 2014. Why culture matters for transport policy: the case of cycling in the UK. Journal of Transport Geography. 34, pp. 78-87. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.11.004

Cycling’s sensory strategies: how cyclists mediate their exposure to the urban environment
Jungnickel, K. and Aldred, R. 2013. Cycling’s sensory strategies: how cyclists mediate their exposure to the urban environment. Mobilities. OnlineFirst. doi:10.1080/17450101.2013.796772

Who are 'Londoners on Bikes' and what do they want? Negotiating identity and issue definition in a ‘pop-up’ cycle campaign
Aldred, R. 2013. Who are 'Londoners on Bikes' and what do they want? Negotiating identity and issue definition in a ‘pop-up’ cycle campaign. Journal of Transport Geography. 30, pp. 194-201. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.01.005

Matter in or out of place? Bicycle parking strategies and their effects on people, practices and places
Aldred, R. and Jungnickel, K. 2013. Matter in or out of place? Bicycle parking strategies and their effects on people, practices and places. Social & Cultural Geography. 14 (6), pp. 604-624. doi:10.1080/14649365.2013.790993

Incompetent or too competent? Negotiating everyday cycling identities in a motor dominated society
Aldred, R. 2013. Incompetent or too competent? Negotiating everyday cycling identities in a motor dominated society. Mobilities. 8 (2), pp. 252-271. doi:10.1080/17450101.2012.696342

Governing transport from welfare state to hollow state: the case of cycling in the UK
Aldred, R. 2012. Governing transport from welfare state to hollow state: the case of cycling in the UK. Transport Policy. 23, pp. 95-102. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.05.012

Constructing mobile places between ‘leisure’ and ‘transport’: a case study of two group cycle rides
Aldred, R. and Jungnickel, K. 2012. Constructing mobile places between ‘leisure’ and ‘transport’: a case study of two group cycle rides. Sociology. 46 (3), pp. 523-539. doi:10.1177/0038038511428752

The role of advocacy and activism in shaping cycling policy and politics
Aldred, R. 2012. The role of advocacy and activism in shaping cycling policy and politics. in: Parkin, J. (ed.) Cycling and sustainability Emerald. pp. 83-110

Cycling cultures: summary of key findings and recommendations
Aldred, R. 2012. Cycling cultures: summary of key findings and recommendations. London University of East London.

Framing scrappage in Germany and the UK: from climate discourse to recession talk?
Aldred, R. and Tepe, D. 2011. Framing scrappage in Germany and the UK: from climate discourse to recession talk? Journal of Transport Geography. 19 (6), pp. 1563-1569. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.04.008

Transitions: becoming a cyclist and cycle trainer in London
Aldred, R. and Kullman, K. 2011. Transitions: becoming a cyclist and cycle trainer in London. London University of East London Sustainable Mobilities Research Group.

Cycling policy in the UK: a historical and thematic overview
Golbuff, L. and Aldred, R. 2011. Cycling policy in the UK: a historical and thematic overview. London University of East London Sustainable Mobilities Research Group.

Green and healthy jobs in transport: launching a new partnership under THE PEP
Woodcock, J. and Aldred, R. 2011. Green and healthy jobs in transport: launching a new partnership under THE PEP. Geneva World Health Organisation.

From community participation to organizational therapy? World cafe and appreciative inquiry as research methods
Aldred, R. 2011. From community participation to organizational therapy? World cafe and appreciative inquiry as research methods. Community Development Journal. 46 (1), pp. 57-71. doi:10.1093/cdj/bsp039

Editorial introduction
Aldred, R. 2011. Editorial introduction. Critical Social Policy. 31 (2), pp. 171-173. doi:10.1177/0261018310395920

‘On the outside’: constructing cycling citizenship
Aldred, R. 2010. ‘On the outside’: constructing cycling citizenship. Social & Cultural Geography. 11 (1), pp. 35-52. doi:10.1080/14649360903414593

"A potential fifth column”: conflicts and struggles for control in the context of local NHS privatisation
Aldred, R. 2009. "A potential fifth column”: conflicts and struggles for control in the context of local NHS privatisation. Health. 13 (5), pp. 543-561. doi:10.1177/1363459308336797

The cowardly cyborg
Woodcock, J. and Aldred, R. 2009. The cowardly cyborg. British Medical Journal. 338 (b522). doi:10.1136/bmj.b522

Ethical and political issues in contemporary research relationships
Aldred, R. 2008. Ethical and political issues in contemporary research relationships. Sociology. 42 (5), pp. 887-903. doi:10.1177/0038038508094568

Cars, corporations, and commodities: Consequences for the social determinants of health
Woodcock, J. and Aldred, R. 2008. Cars, corporations, and commodities: Consequences for the social determinants of health. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology. 5 (4), p. Online. doi:10.1186/1742-7622-5-4

Transport: challenging disabling environments
Aldred, R. and Woodcock, J. 2008. Transport: challenging disabling environments. Local Environment. 13 (6), pp. 485-496. doi:10.1080/13549830802259847

NHS LIFT and the new shape of neoliberal welfare
Aldred, R. 2008. NHS LIFT and the new shape of neoliberal welfare. Capital and Class. 32 (95), pp. 31-57. doi:10.1177/030981680809500102

Managing risk and regulation within new local ‘health economies’: The case of NHS LIFT (local improvement finance trust)
Aldred, R. 2008. Managing risk and regulation within new local ‘health economies’: The case of NHS LIFT (local improvement finance trust). Health, Risk & Society. 10 (1), pp. 23-36. doi:10.1080/13698570701782411

Flexible regulation: the birth of a qualitative audit society?
Aldred, R. 2008. Flexible regulation: the birth of a qualitative audit society? International Journal of Management Concepts and Philosophy. 3 (1), pp. 48-65. doi:10.1504/IJMCP.2008.018529

Community governance or corporate governance? Two models for primary care provision in England
Aldred, R. 2007. Community governance or corporate governance? Two models for primary care provision in England. Social Theory & Health. 5, pp. 338-355. doi:10.1057/palgrave.sth.8700109

Closed policy networks, broken chains of communication and the stories behind an ‘entrepreneurial policy’: the case of NHS local improvement finance trust (NHS LIFT)
Aldred, R. 2007. Closed policy networks, broken chains of communication and the stories behind an ‘entrepreneurial policy’: the case of NHS local improvement finance trust (NHS LIFT). Critical Social Policy. 27 (1), pp. 139-151. doi:10.1177/0261018307072211

Permalink - https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/q3075/predictors-of-the-frequency-and-subjective-experience-of-cycling-near-misses-findings-from-the-first-two-years-of-the-uk-near-miss-project

Predictors of the frequency and subjective experience of cycling near misses: Findings from the first two years of the UK Near Miss Project

Related outputs

Usage statistics

Export as