How places vote
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. How places vote. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University Press. pp. 85-118
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. How places vote. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University Press. pp. 85-118
| Chapter title | How places vote |
|---|---|
| Authors | Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will |
| Abstract | This chapter explores the extent to which the sociodemographic underpinnings of the electoral geography of England and Wales have changed between 1979 and 2019. It asks what kind of constituencies returned high vote shares for Labour and the Conservatives at each general election over this period. The chapter begins by exploring the bivariate constituency-level relationships between party vote shares and variables associated with three alternative definitions of places being ‘left behind’. We then estimate multiple linear regression models, revealing a significant long-term (though recently accelerating) shift away from Labour to the Conservatives in demographically left behind areas with largely white, working-class populations and lower levels of education. In contrast, Labour’s electoral dominance in areas with high levels of economic deprivation (economically left behind) and higher proportions of people in insecure/precarious employment (precariously left behind) has remained stable over this forty-year period. |
| Book title | The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales |
| Page range | 85-118 |
| Year | 2024 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press |
| Publication dates | |
| Published in print | 12 Jun 2024 |
| ISBN | 9780198927082 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1093/9780191943331.003.0004 |
| Journal | The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales |
Blue-green infrastructure and socio-spatial changes: A study of urban wetlands restoration, housing development and gentrification in London using census data
Sánchez, J., Corada, K., Furlong, J., Nash, C., Connop, S. and San José Carreras, E. 2026. Forthcoming. Blue-green infrastructure and socio-spatial changes: A study of urban wetlands restoration, housing development and gentrification in London using census data. Cities. 169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.106500
Removing Through-traffic on Minor Roads Reduces Road Danger at Junctions with Surrounding Major Roads
Jamie Furlong, David Fevyer, Beck Casement, Rachel Aldred, Anthony Laverty, Ben Armstrong, Phil Edwards and Anna Goodman 2025. Removing Through-traffic on Minor Roads Reduces Road Danger at Junctions with Surrounding Major Roads. Findings. August. https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.143455
Can mixed-methods help us better understand congestion on Low Traffic Neighbourhood boundary roads?
Verlinghieri, E., Larrington-Spencer, H., Furlong, J., Aldred, R. and Goodman, A. 2025. Can mixed-methods help us better understand congestion on Low Traffic Neighbourhood boundary roads? Journal of Transport Geography. 128 104360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104360
Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London reduce road traffic injuries: a controlled before-and-after analysis (2012–2024)
Jamie Furlong, David Fevyer, Ben Armstrong, Phil Edwards, Rachel Aldred and Anna Goodman 2025. Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London reduce road traffic injuries: a controlled before-and-after analysis (2012–2024). Injury Prevention. Advanced online publication. https://doi.org/10.1136/ip-2024-045571
Green transport measures at the ballot box: The role of low Traffic Neighbourhoods in the 2022 London local elections
Jamie Furlong, Athena Brook, Rachel Aldred and Charlie Hicks 2025. Green transport measures at the ballot box: The role of low Traffic Neighbourhoods in the 2022 London local elections. Case Studies on Transport Policy. 20 101459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101459
What drives the link between university study and attitudinal change?
Simon, E., Devine, D. and Furlong, J. 2025. What drives the link between university study and attitudinal change? Electoral Studies. 95 102930. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102930
Report on the first stage of the process evaluation of the Active Travel Fund Tranche 2
Aldred, R., Sanderson, N., Fewster, J., Furlong, J. and Rahman, D. 2025. Report on the first stage of the process evaluation of the Active Travel Fund Tranche 2. London Report to Department for Transport.
Active Travel Fund Evaluation baseline report
Aldred, R., Furlong, J., Dennis, S., Goodman, A. and Sloman, L. 2025. Active Travel Fund Evaluation baseline report. London Report to Department for Transport.
Statistical analysis plan: Journey times and congestion on LTN boundary roads, including the use of this data for air pollution modelling.
Furlong, J., Armstrong, B., Fevyer, D., Aldred, R., Edwards, P., Laverty, A. and Goodman, A. 2025. Statistical analysis plan: Journey times and congestion on LTN boundary roads, including the use of this data for air pollution modelling.
Fragmented and Dealigned: The 2024 British General Election and the Rise of Place-Based Politics
Jennings, W., Furlong, J., Stoker, G. and McKay, L. 2025. Fragmented and Dealigned: The 2024 British General Election and the Rise of Place-Based Politics. The Political Quarterly. 96 (1), pp. 13-25. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.13483
The impact of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London on the characteristics of people walking, cycling and wheeling: statistical analysis plan
Goodman, A., Furlong, J., Armstrong, B., Edwards, P., Verlinghieri, E., Benton, J., Larrington-Spencer, H., Fevyer, D., Laverty, A. and Aldred, R. 2024. The impact of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London on the characteristics of people walking, cycling and wheeling: statistical analysis plan.
Why place matters
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. Why place matters. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University Press. pp. 184-214
In search of Red and Blue heartlands
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. In search of Red and Blue heartlands. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University PressOxford. pp. 151-183
Redrawing the electoral map
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. Redrawing the electoral map. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University PressOxford. pp. 1-36
Conclusion
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. Conclusion. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University PressOxford. pp. 215-230
Electoral change in England and Wales
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. Electoral change in England and Wales. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University Press. pp. 62-84
Relative decline (and growth) and the changing electoral geography of England and Wales
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. Relative decline (and growth) and the changing electoral geography of England and Wales. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University Press. pp. 119-150
How changing demography drives electoral change
Furlong, Jamie and Jennings, Will 2024. How changing demography drives electoral change. in: The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales Oxford University Press. pp. 37-61
Road Traffic Injuries and LTNs: Statistical Analysis Plan
Furlong, J., Armstrong, B., Edwards, P., Fevyer, D., Aldred, R. and Goodman, A. 2024. Road Traffic Injuries and LTNs: Statistical Analysis Plan.
WeThink MRP: Historical low for the Conservatives?
Furlong, J. 2024. WeThink MRP: Historical low for the Conservatives?
How the Electoral Map of England and Wales has been Redrawn
Furlong, J. and Jennings, W. 2024. How the Electoral Map of England and Wales has been Redrawn. Political Insight. 15 (2), pp. 4-7. https://doi.org/10.1177/20419058241260780a
The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales
Furlong, J. and Jennings, W. 2024. The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales. Oxford University Press (OUP).
ATF Evaluation Baseline Report Baseline - Report for the Active Travel Fund Tranche 2 evaluation
Aldred, R., Furlong, J., Dennis, S., Goodman, A. and Sloman, L. 2023. ATF Evaluation Baseline Report Baseline - Report for the Active Travel Fund Tranche 2 evaluation. Department for Transport.
Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London: statistical analysis plan for examining impacts on driving times
Goodman, A., Laverty, A., Furlong, J., Edwards, P., Armstrong, B. and Aldred, R. 2023. Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London: statistical analysis plan for examining impacts on driving times.
Sound and fury? The impact of councillors’ LTN positions on voting behaviour in Greater London
Furlong, J., Brook, A., Hicks, C. and Aldred, R. 2023. Sound and fury? The impact of councillors’ LTN positions on voting behaviour in Greater London. Possible.
What does the evidence on Low Traffic Neighbourhoods really show?
Furlong, J., Larrington-Spencer, H. and Verlinghieri, E. 2023. What does the evidence on Low Traffic Neighbourhoods really show? Public Sector Focus, Issue 27, July/August 2023.
Are low-traffic neighbourhoods greenwashing? Here’s what the evidence says
Furlong, J., Verlinghieri, E. and Larrington-Spencer, H. 2023. Are low-traffic neighbourhoods greenwashing? Here’s what the evidence says. The Conversation.
Trading off Time, Carbon, Active Travel, and Health: What do People Really Think about Traffic-reduction Measures?
Cohen, T., Furlong, J. and Farrow, L. 2023. Trading off Time, Carbon, Active Travel, and Health: What do People Really Think about Traffic-reduction Measures? Findings. June. https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.81100
The Impact of 2020 Low Traffic Neighbourhoods on Levels of Car/Van Driving among Residents: Findings from Lambeth, London, UK
Anna Goodman, Anthony A. Laverty, Jamie Furlong and Rachel Aldred 2023. The Impact of 2020 Low Traffic Neighbourhoods on Levels of Car/Van Driving among Residents: Findings from Lambeth, London, UK. Findings. June. https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.75470
Statistical Analysis Plan: Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London: Interrupted time series analysis of sensor count data
Furlong, J., Armstrong, B., Aldred, R. and Edwards, P. 2023. Statistical Analysis Plan: Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London: Interrupted time series analysis of sensor count data .
London air pollution: expanding the ULEZ is good but it won’t work by itself
Furlong, J. 2022. London air pollution: expanding the ULEZ is good but it won’t work by itself. The Conversation.
Equity in temporary street closures: The case of London’s Covid-19 'School Streets' schemes
Thomas, A., Furlong, J. and Aldred, R. 2022. Equity in temporary street closures: The case of London’s Covid-19 'School Streets' schemes. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 110 103402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103402
Impacts of 2020 Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London on Road Traffic Injuries
Goodman, A., Jamie Furlong, Laverty, A., Henry Patrick Thomas, A. and Aldred, R. 2021. Impacts of 2020 Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London on Road Traffic Injuries. Findings. https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.25633
Place-based Politics and Nested Deprivation in the U.K.: Beyond Cities-towns, ‘Two Englands’ and the ‘Left Behind’
Boswell, J., Denham J., Furlong, J., Killick, A., Ndugga, P, Rek, B., Ryan, M. and Shipp, J. 2020. Place-based Politics and Nested Deprivation in the U.K.: Beyond Cities-towns, ‘Two Englands’ and the ‘Left Behind’. Representation. 58 (2), pp. 169-190. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2020.1751258
The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: Varieties of “left-behindedness”
Furlong, J. 2019. The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: Varieties of “left-behindedness”. Political Geography. 75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102061
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