| Title | The Moderating role of Geopolitical Fragmentation in Energy Transition-Energy Poverty Nexus: A Cross Distribution Evidence from Europe |
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| Type | Journal article |
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| Authors | Luo, Y., Ul-Durar, S., Arshad, N., Nazarian, A. and Shahbaz, M. |
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| Abstract | Energy transition and energy poverty are studied in a monotonic perspective in literature. This linearity focus indicates theoretical and empirical under examination amid the interaction of geopolitical fragmentation. The empirical studies have related energy transition and geopolitical risks with renewable energy, but they have underexplored the nonlinear moderating dynamics of energy transition-poverty relationship. This study proposes a nonlinear transition-poverty relationship with geopolitical fragmentation moderation across 28 European nations. Our study also uses two indicators like inability to keep homes warm and arrears on utility bills as indicators of energy poverty. Energy transition is measured using renewable energy shares and proxied using effective energy transition in a quadratic setup. Geopolitical risk is proposed as a moderator. The panel Quantile Regression is used to estimate the overall model and robustness models. The results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship between transition and poverty. This means an energy transition requires pre-requisite investments and infrastructure to observe energy poverty alleviation. Geopolitical fragmentation moderates in dampening the transition-poverty relationship. Our results on pre- and post-war show the increased severity of energy poverty because of geopolitical fragmentation. This study contributes to providing distribution-heterogenous evidence where geopolitical risk dampens energy transition's poverty alleviating effect in Europe. This study recommends Europe to reform energy transition policy to integrate distributional safeguards. The transition process must be linked with policy continuity and the economic enablement of the population. |
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| Article number | 115544 |
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| Journal | Energy Policy |
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| Journal citation | 219 |
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| ISSN | 1873-6777 |
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| 0301-4215 |
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| Year | 2026 |
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| Publisher | Elsevier |
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| Accepted author manuscript | License CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 File Access Level Open (open metadata and files) |
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| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115544 |
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| Publication dates |
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| Published online | 11 Aug 2026 |
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| Published in print | Dec 2016 |
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