Analysing decision logs to understand decision-making in serious crime investigations

Dando, C.J. and Ormerod, T.C. 2017. Analysing decision logs to understand decision-making in serious crime investigations. Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. 59 (8), pp. 1188-1203. doi:10.1177/0018720817727899

TitleAnalysing decision logs to understand decision-making in serious crime investigations
AuthorsDando, C.J. and Ormerod, T.C.
Abstract

Objective: To study decision-making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of Decision Logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection.
Background: Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision-making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision-making in dynamic, time-critical environments.
Method: A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives.
Results: Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type, and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision-making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers’ decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential enquiry opened over phase of investigation.
Conclusion: The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision-making to avoid confirmation and satisficing that affect less experienced detectives.
Application. Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.

KeywordsDecision Logs; Crime Investigation; Heuristics & Biases; Hypothesis Generation; Expertise.
JournalHuman Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Journal citation59 (8), pp. 1188-1203
ISSN0018-7208
Year2017
PublisherSage
Accepted author manuscriptDando & Ormerod 25_7_17 Final Decision-Logs Human Factors 125_ July 17 2017.pdf
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1177/0018720817727899
Publication dates
Published online06 Sep 2017

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